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《德意志银行-中国原油与天然气行业上半年预览-20170804-deutschebank-chinaoil＆gas：1h17o＆gpreview，firingonallcylinders》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、ChinaOil&GasDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina4August2017ChinaOil&GasEnergyOil&GasIndustryUpdate1H17O&Gpreview:FiringonallcylindersJohnsonWan1H17earningspreviewforChinaO&GGiventhelacklusterperformanceofH-sharelistedO&Gstockstodate(-6.2%ResearchAnalystvsindexup2
2、6.7%),1H17resultsmightjustbethecatalystthat'sneededto+852-22036163givethesectoraboost.Webelieveeverysinglesegment,includingE&P,mid-stream,downstreamandOFS,sawanotableimprovementinearnings,thanksVitusLeungtooilpricesrecoveringtoUSD53/bblfromUSD41/bblayearearlier.ThebiggestRes
3、earchAnalystswingshouldbeinupstream,withCNOOCandPTRlikelyreturningtoprofit,+852-22036158whiletheOFSnamesshouldseelossesdeclinesignificantly;COSLhasalreadyreturnedtoprofitin2Q.EvenforR&C,whichhadahighbasefromlastyear,coreKeyChangesoperatingincome(excluding1Q16windfallrefiningprofi
4、t)shouldstillimproveCompanyTargetPriceRating14%yoy.Thesegmentsthatlikelylaggedwerepipelinesandmarketing,buteven0386.HK7.44to7.27hereearningsshouldstillbeup10-25%byourestimates.Toppickstoowngoing0857.HK4.77to5.51intotheresults:COSLandCNOOC.2386.HK9.20to9.000883.HK10.47to11.56
5、Source:DeutscheBankUpstream:ExpectingabeatbyCNOOCandstronggasvolumesTakingalookattheswingsinEBITfrom1H16to1H17E(CNOOC:-RMB10.8bnToppicksto+RMB15.9bn,PTR:-RMB2.4bnto+RMB9.9bn,andSNP:-RMB21.9bnto-CNOOCLtd(0883.HK),HKD8.75BuyRMB15.5bn),weexpectthestrongestimprovementtobeatCNOOC
6、.WebelieveChinaOilfieldServicesBuy(2883.HK),HKD6.88CNOOCwillcontinuetosurprisein1H17bykeepingall-incostsincheck,likelySource:DeutscheBankflattodownyoyatc.USD37/boe,whiletheothertwomajorswilllikelyseecostsreboundslightlyduetohigherDD&A.Onthevolumeside,higher-costproducerssuchas
7、SNPwilllikelymissoncrudeproduction(1H17-5%vs.FY17target-3%)Figure1:DBevs.Cons(2017EEPS)andsowillPTR(1H17-7%vs.FY17target-4.5%).Asareference,Chinasaw13%EPS(CNY/sh)DBeCons%diff0386.HK0.440.432.9%yoygrowthinimportsfor1H17.Ontheotherhand,CNOOCshouldseesmaller-0857.HK0.130.17-25.
8、9%than-expectedvolumedeclines,likely-2-3%yoyversusitstargetof-3.5-5.6%2386.
