山西证券行业研究地产春交会后期成交高位

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1、行业研究房地产春交会后期成交高位企稳沪、深、穗价有上升趋势评级：增持2009第六期总第六期(090427-090510)2009年05月14日地产双周报投资要点：执笔人:平海庆近两周地产股走势仍强于大盘。5月8日地产指数收于3171.61点，相0351-8686971对4月24日的2679.61上涨18.36%。pinghq@126.com上周和本周地产股的成交量分别为51.52亿股和104.95亿股；成交金联系人额分别为460.4亿元和966.6亿元，成交量和成交额较前面两周都有下降。焦春成纵向对比来看，09年周均成交量和成交额分别为78.9亿股和621.2亿元；0351-8686986

2、成交量继续保持在06年以来的最高水平，成交金额继续接近07年的650sxzqyjfzb@i618.com.cn亿元。行业政策动态：一季度全国地价水平呈回落趋势居住地价下降明显；地址：太原市府西街69号国贸中心A座28层电话：0351-8686986住宅开发商资本金有望松动；一季度房地产开发贷款同比多增1257亿；上山西证券股份有限公司海南汇区并入浦东新区获国务院批准。http://www.i618.com.cn重点公司动态：保利明确80亿增发方案；金融街2009年上半年业绩预增400%；世茂房地产（0813.HK）公布2008年年报；金地集团5.6亿元相关研究：上海购地；金地、保利、万科公

3、布4月份销售公告。部分城市成交量分析：环渤海、长三角地区稍有回落，但仍维持在高《房地产行业双周报第一期》位；中部、西南地区高位企稳；珠三角地区继续上升。15个城市当中，深090216-090301圳、广州、青岛、昆明成交上升幅度较大；重庆、上海、南京逐渐回落至《房地产行业双周报第二期》正常水平，其他城市基本与前两周持平或略有下降。090302-090315《房地产行业双周报第三期》上海、深圳、广州价格有上升趋势；北京、青岛、南京、杭州、福州、090316-090329成都上行仍面临去库存化阻力；其他城市基本稳定或稳中微幅上升。《房地产行业双周报第四期》经过春交会期间的大幅攀升之后，近两周部

4、分城市成交量有所回落，090330-090412但总体仍维持在比较高的水平，预计至少将持续到二季度末。继续维持房《房地产行业双周报第五期》地产行业“增持”的评级。090413-090426近两周地产股表现：33002500032002000031003000150002900280010000270050002600250004-274-284-294-305-45-55-65-75-8成交金额(百万元,右轴)房地产(申万)沪深300(可比)数据来源：wind资讯、山西证券研究所行业研究

5、地产双周报图表目录图1：地产板块成交金额变化·····························

6、·······························3图2：地产板块成交量变化·······························································3图3：近两周涨幅排行·····································································4图4：近两周跌幅排行·····································································4图5：近两周换手率排行···················

7、···············································5图6：近两周成交量排行··································································5图7：近两周成交额排行··································································6图8：北京网上期房签约套数··························································10图9：北京新建商品房价格走势·······

8、················································10图10：天津商品房成交套数···························································10图11：天津商品房成交均价···························································11图12：青岛住宅成交套数··