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1、INDUSTRYNOTEInitiatingCoverageConsumer
2、Media&Entertainment24January2012EQUITYRESEARCHMedia&EntertainmentGlobalAdvertisingAgencies:CyclicalConcernsTrumpStructuralProspectsKeyTakeawayWeinitiatecoverageofthefivelargestglobaladvertisingagencieswithCoverageSummaryourcautioussectorviewweighinghea
3、vilyonourcompanyratings.WeseePriceTickerRatingPriceTargetstructuralgrowthprospectsfortheindustrybutregardcyclicalissuesasthe4324JPUNDERPERFORM¥2,455¥2,100medium-termdrivergivenchallengesintheUSandEurope,whichcombinedIPGUNDERPERFORM$10.45$9.00accountfor73%ofglobaladvertising.WeinitiateatBuyf
4、orPublicis,HoldforOMCHOLD$46.17$41.00OmnicomandUnderperformforWPP,InterpublicandDentsu.PUBFPBUY€39.09€44.00GLOBALSummaryofratingsandinvestmenttheses:WPPLNUNDERPERFORM757.50p630.00pPublicis,Buy.Defensibleleadershippositionindigitalshouldprovidesupporttoweaknessindevelopedmarketspendingasdemo
5、nstratedbyunrivalledorganicgrowthineightofFinancialSummary&MarketDatathelast12quarters,includingallsixwheretheindustryshowednegativeornogrowth.Mkt.Cap.SharesWeseethegroupwellpositioned,eveninaflatadvertisingenvironment,giventheshiftinTicker(MM)Out.(MM)NetDebtmarketingspendfromtraditionalmed
6、iumstodigitalones.4324JP¥682.5BN278.0(¥16.3)BNIPG$4,819.5461.2$1,259.0Omnicom,Hold.WeexpectOmnicomtofacechallengesgivenitgeneratesover80%OMC$14,012.6303.5$648.0ofsalesintheUSandEurope,butseedownsideprotectiongivenincreasedcost-basePUBFP€7,560.0193.4(€342.0)flexibilityandatrackrecordofsucces
7、sfullynavigatingthepullbackin2009wheremarginsWPPLN£9,544.51,260.0£2,412.0fellsignificantlylessthantherestoftheindustry.WPP,Underperform.WPPhasbeenmoredependentthanpeersonacquisitionswithonlyaquarterofthe74%increaseinrevenuesoverthelastfiveyearscomingfromorganicgrowth.Incomparison,Publicis’s
8、alesincreased31%overthesameperiod,withorganicaccountingforthree-quartersoftheincrease.Giventherecentwaveofconsolidation,particularlyindigital,weseediminishedopportunitytoacquiregrowthatscaleandfocusshiftingawayfromacquisitions,oneofWPPstrengths.Interpubl
