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1、OxfordEconomicPapers46(1994),857-868THEOPTIMALTIMEPATHOFACARBONTAXByALISTAIRULPH*andDAVIDULPHt*DepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofSouthampton,Highfield,SouthamptonS095NHtDepartmentofEconomics,UniversityCollegeLondon,GowerStreet,LondonWC1E6BT1.IntroductionI
2、NTHELIGHTofconcernsaboutglobalwarming,anumberofcountries,includingtheEC,haveeitherproposedtoimplementorhavealreadyimple-mentedacarbontaxtocontrolemissionsofC02,oneoftheprincipalgasescontributingtoglobalwarming.Thereisnowasubstantialliteraturewhichbothdisc
3、ussestherelativemeritsofsuchaninstrumentandattemptstoprovideempiricalestimatesoftheeconomicimpactofsuchatax(seeBoeroetal.1991;Pezzey1991forrecentreviewsofsomeofthisliterature).Muchofthisliteraturehasbeenconcernedwiththequestionofwhatlevelofcarbontaxisrequ
4、iredtoreduceCO2emissions.'However,thelevelofcarbontaxcouldbethewrongissueonwhichtofocus.ForthemajorsourceofCO2istheburningoffossilfuels,whichareanexhaustibleresource,andweknowfromtheliteratureonexhaustibleresources(e.g.DasguptaandHeal1979)thataconstant(ad
5、valorem)taxonanexhaustibleresourcewhichiscostlesstoproducewillhavenoeffectonthedepletionoftheresource,andhencethestockofCO2,nomatterhowhighthetaxrateis.Thissuggeststhatwhatmattersisthetimepathofthetaxratherthanjustitslevel.Inparticular,forthespecialcaseof
6、zeroextractioncostsjustdiscussedafallingadvaloremtaxwouldberequiredtodelaydepletionandhenceslowtheaccumulationofCO2emissions.However,thereisasecondfeatureoftheCO2problemwhichalsoemphasisestheimportanceofthetimepathofacarbontax,butpointsinadifferentdirecti
7、on.ThisisthatanydamagesarisingfromglobalwarmingarerelatedtothestockofCO2intheatmosphere.Theliteratureonsuchexternalities-Plourde(1972),Dasgupta(1982),vanderPloegandWithaven(1991),KoandSandler(1990)showsthatifthestockofCO2isbelowitssteady-statelevelthenaca
8、rbontaxshouldriseovertime.SofarwehavediscussedtheimplicationsofthetwofeaturesoftheCO2probleminisolation,andanobviousimportantquestioniswhatshouldbethe1Inmuchoftheearlyliteraturethecarbontaxwascalculatedtoensurethate
