Travel time savings, transport infrastructure and path dependence, the case of Melbourne, Australia

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1、Traveltimesavings,transportinfrastructureandpathdependence,thecaseofMelbourne,AustraliaJohnOdgersandNicholasLow1IntroductionInthispaperwearguethatinvestmentintransportinfrastructureindevelopedeonomiescannotbejustifiedbyanappealtoeconomicbenefitarisingfromtraveltimesaved.Weexa

2、minethecaseoftheCityLinkfreewayexpansioninMelbourne,Australia.Wearguethattransportinfrastructurepolicycanbestbeexplainedas‗pathdependent‘.Infrastructurepolicy,fordecadesheavilydominatedbyexpenditureonroadsattheexpenseofeveryotherformoftransport,isapolicysettingthatis‗lockedin

3、‘byitscapacitytodeliverincreasedpowerandinfluencetothestateapparatusthatproducesit.TraveltimesavingInarecentbookDavidMetz,formerchiefscientistoftheUKDepartmentofTransport,discussesthemonetizedtimesavingsconventionallyusedtojustifypublicexpenditureoninfrastructure,andparticula

4、rlyonroadprograms.HecitesdatafromtheUKNationalTravelSurveytoshowthataveragepercapitatraveltimeinBritainremainedmoreorlessconstantbetween1970and2005,aperiodwhichsawenormousinvestmentinnewandimprovedroads.Heobservesthathewassurprisedtofindnoanalysisintheresearchliteraturethatme

5、asuredwhetheraparticularroadinvestmenthadactuallyachievedthetraveltimesavingsclaimedforit.He‗drewablank‘,hesays,fromhissearch(Metz,2008,p.30).RecentworkinAustraliaseekstofillthegapidentifiedbyMetzbyevaluatingtheclaimsmadeforamajormotorwayexpansioncarriedoutinMelbournebetween1

6、996and2000.CityLinkisa22kilometreroadwayexpandingandlinkingexistingmotorwaysbymeansofanewsectionofelevatedmotorway,abridgeandtwotunnels(LayandDaly,2002).CityLinkwasbuiltunderaConcessionDeedgrantedtoaconsortiumofcompanies(TransurbancomprisedofTransfieldEngineeringandObayashi)t

7、odesign,build,finance,operate,levytollsandmaintaintheroadwayfor34yearsuntil14June2034.Itwillthentransfertopublicownership.TheprojectwasdesignedontheBOOTmodel:Build-Own-Operate-Transfer.Theprojecthadmultipleobjectives:Reducingthecongestioncausedbyexistingfreewaysterminatingon

8、thefringesofthecityandfeedingheavytrafficflowsintothecentralarea..R