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1、Chapter15EightMythsAboutCausalityandStructuralEquationModelsKennethA.BollenandJudeaPearlAbstractCausalitywasatthecenteroftheearlyhistoryofstructuralequationmodels(SEMs)whichcontinuetoserveasthemostpopularapproachtocausalanalysisinthesocialsciences.Throughdecadesofdevelopment,cri
2、ticsanddefensesofthecapabilityofSEMstosupportcausalinferencehaveaccumulated.AvarietyofmisunderstandingsandmythsaboutthenatureofSEMsandtheirroleincausalanalysishaveemerged,andtheirrepetitionhasledsometobelievetheyaretrue.Ourchapterisorganizedbypresentingeightmythsaboutcausalityan
3、dSEMsinthehopethatthiswillleadtoamoreaccurateunderstanding.MorespeciÞcally,theeightmythsarethefollowing:(1)SEMsaimtoestablishcausalrelationsfromassociationsalone,(2)SEMsandregressionareessentiallyequivalent,(3)nocausationwithoutmanipulation,(4)SEMsarenotequippedtohandlenonlinear
4、causalrelationships,(5)apotentialoutcomeframeworkismoreprincipledthanSEMs,(6)SEMsarenotapplicabletoexperimentswithrandomizedtreatments,(7)mediationanalysisinSEMsisinherentlynoncausal,and(8)SEMsdonottestanymajorpartofthetheoryagainstthedata.Wepresentthefactsthatdispelthesemyths,d
5、escribewhatSEMscanandcannotdo,andbrießypresentourcritiqueofcurrentpracticeusingSEMs.WeconcludethatthecurrentcapabilitiesofSEMstoformalizeandimplementcausalinferencetasksareindispensible;itspotentialtodomoreisevengreater.EightMythsAboutCausalityandStructuralEquationModelsSocialsc
6、ientistsÕinterestincausaleffectsisasoldasthesocialsciences.Attentiontothephilosophicalunderpinningsandthemethodologicalchallengesofanalyzingcausalityhaswaxedandwaned.Otherauthorsinthisvolumetracethehistoryoftheconceptofcausalityinthesocialsciencesandweleavethistasktotheirskilled
7、hands.Butwedonotethatweareatatimewhenthereisarenaissance,ifnotarevolutioninthemethodologyofcausalinference,andstructuralequationmodelsplayamajorroleinthisrenaissance.K.A.Bollen()DepartmentofSociology,UniversityofNorthCarolina,ChapelHill,NC,USAe-mail:bollen@unc.eduJ.PearlDepartm
8、entofComputerScience,UniversityofCalifornia,Los
