the prisoner’s dilemma and rational irrationality

the prisoner’s dilemma and rational irrationality

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时间:2018-02-10

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1、11.THEPRISONER’SDILEMMAANDRATIONALIRRATIONALITYAstheproblemsofpollutionandfreeridingmakeclear,manytypesofmarketfailurecomedowntothefactofhumaninterdependence.WhatIdoaffectsyourwelfare;whatyoudoaffectsmine.Thesameappliesinbusiness.WhenGeneralMotorscutsitspricesoroffersinterest-freeloans,FordandC

2、hryslercomeunderpressuretomatchGM’sdeals,eveniftheirfinancesarealreadystretched.IfMerrillLynchsetsupahedgefundtoinvestincollateralizeddebtobligationsorsomeothernewfangledsecurities,MorganStanleywillfeelobligedtolaunchasimilarfundsoitswealthyclientsdon’tdefect.Now,thechairmenoftheBigThreeautomak

3、ers,despiteallthecriticismtheyhavereceivedrecently,arepresumablyfairlyrational,intelligentfellowswhowouldrathercoexistpeaceablythangetintodamagingcompetition.(Fornow,wewillsetasidethementalcapacitiesofWallStreetCEOs.)Isn’ttheresomewaytheycangettogetherandworkoutsolutionsthatarebeneficialtoeacho

4、ftheircompaniesandtotheircustomers,too?Oftentheanswerisno.Considerthefollowingexample.Twofirms,eachofwhichownsacoal-burningpowerplant,arecompetingtosupplyelectricitytoasmalltown.Asthingsstand,theysplitthemarketandeachofthemmakes$20millioninannualoperatingprofits.However,thelocalresidents’associ

5、ationispursuingalong-runninglawsuittotrytostoptheirsmokeemissions,whichoftenblowintoresidentialareas.Defendingthesuitandpayingsomehigh-pricedpublicityconsultantscoststhefirms$10millionayeareach,reducingtheirnetprofitsto$10million.Atanindividualcostof$5millionayear,thepowerplantscouldeachinstall

6、afilteringsystemthatwouldcapturemostoftheirdamagingemissions.Ifthetwofirmsintroducedthefilters,theresidents’associationwoulddropitslawsuit,andthefirmswouldeachmakenetprofitsof$15million.Atfirstglance,itseemsobviousthatthetwoplantsshouldquitfightingthelawsuit,installthefilters,andraisetheirnetpr

7、ofitsby$5million.Thingsaren’tsosimple,however.Theestimatedcostofoperatingthefiltersassumesthatthetwofirmsintroducethemsimultaneouslyandraisethepriceoftheelectricitytheyproduce,whichbringsthemsomeextrarevenue.Explicitpricefixingoft

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