deutsche bank－china’s oil demand slows

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongOil&GasDemand-3May2013EnergyOil&GasChinaPeriodicalDavidHurd,CFAChina'soildemandslowsResearchAnalyst(+852)22036242david.hurd@db.comThedataisimportant-sowepublishit:ToppicksWesourceourdatafromChina'sNationalBur

2、eauofStatistics.WemakenoSinopec(0386.HK),HKD8.38Buyadjustmentstothedata.China'sapparentoildemandgrewby4.8%in2012toRelianceIndustries(RELI.BO),INR802.75Buy9.25mmb/d.Demandgrowthwasslowerthanourinitial5.8%estimatewhichONGC(ONGC.BO),INR329.20BuywaspremisedonDB's

3、1QGDPestimateof8.2%vs.actual7.7%FY12.China’sLToildemandtoGDPgrowthratioissomewherebetween0.68-0.73x(FigureCompaniesFeatured27).DBChinaeconomistJunMaisforecasting8.2%GDPgrowth2013,whichwouldgiveusarangeof5.9%to5.5%forChinaoildemandgrowth2013e.InSinopec(0386.HK

4、),HKD8.38Buyourrecent(12April'13)FITTreport"Bottoms-up",weestimatedthatChina's2012A2013E2014Edemandforoilwouldgrowatanaverage5.7%between2012-16e.P/E(x)8.68.07.5EV/EBITDA(x)4.84.74.5China’sapparentdemandforoilslows1Q13:Price/book(x)1.21.11.0China’sapparentdema

5、ndforcrude(Figure4)fell-0.8%year-on-year1Q13.It’snowonderChina’seconomyfeelssluggish;can’tgrowwithoutoil.ImportsofONGC(ONGC.BO),INR329.20Buycrudefell-2.3%(Figure10)Y/y1Q13.Thisisnotthefirsttimewehaveseen2012A2013E2014EquarterlycrudeimportsfallY/y.Wesawquarter

6、lyyear-on-yearimportsofoilP/E(x)8.310.68.9fall1Q05(-1.7%),1Q09(-10.2%),3Q11(-3.6%)and3Q12(-1.0%).AggregateEV/EBITDA(x)3.64.13.4productdemand(Figure4)grewby5%leadbygasoline(15.7%)andfueloilPrice/book(x)1.71.91.6(16.6%)whiledieseldemandslumped(-0.8%).Domesticpr

7、oductionofproductRelianceIndustries(RELI.BO),INR802.75Buy(Figure7)grewby7.3%,leadingtohigherexports(Figure13)ofdiesel2012A2013E2014E(+367%),Kerosene(+25.9%)andgasoline(+14.5%).AggregateproductP/E(x)13.912.511.1exportswereup19.3%Y/y1Q13.DespitethepickupinChina

8、’sproductEV/EBITDA(x)9.49.28.4exports,Singrefiningmargins(Figure49)werestrong1Q13.Price/book(x)1.51.41.3Crudeoilapparentdemandgrowth2013e(Figs1-2):WeexpectChina’soildemandgrowthtoaccelera