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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongChinaProperty2January2014PropertyPropertyIndustryUpdateJasonChing,CFATonyTsangTakingalookatpotentialpurchasingResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036205(+852)22036256powerjason.ching@db.comtony.tsang@db.comPurchasingpowerinChinaisrela
2、tivelystrongerthaninotherkeyAsiamarketsAlbertTamIn11M13,salesvolumeintheresidentialmarketwasupby21%YoYandResearchAssociatetransactionvalueroseevenmoreat31%YoYdespiteuncertaintyinthe(+852)22036183economyandstrictimplementationoftighteningmeasures,namelythehomealbert.tam@db.compurchaseres
3、trictionsthathavesignificantlydepressedinvestmentdemand.Inourview,thestrongsalesperformanceYTDissupportedbyrobustend-userToppicksdemand.Moreover,byanalyzingthepotentialpurchasingpower,ourfindingsshowthatpurchasingpowerinChinaisrelativelystrongerthaninotherkeyCOLI(0688.HK),HKD21.90BuyAsi
4、anmarkets,suchasHongKongandSingapore.ChinaOvsGrandOceansBuy(0081.HK),HKD7.31AmplehouseholdsavingsdepositspresentstrongpotentialpurchasingpowerChinaResourcesLandBuyAccordingtostatisticscompiledbytheNBS,totalhouseholdsavingsdeposits(1109.HK),HKD19.58inChinastoodatRmb45.3trasofOct-2013,ora
5、pproximately8.8timestheSource:DeutscheBanktotalcommodityresidentialtransactionvalueofRmb5.1troverthesameCompaniesFeaturedperiod.Ifweassumedown-paymentof30%andapplyonthebalanceofhouseholdsavingsdepositsofRmb45.3tr,themaximumpotentialpurchasingCOLI(0688.HK),HKD21.90BuypowercouldreachRmb15
6、1tr,orabout29timestheannualtransactionvalue2012A2013E2014Ein2012.Inotherwords,thehouseholdsavingsbaseinChinacouldpotentiallyP/E(x)7.88.36.9supportabout29yearsofresidentialpurchasebasedon2012numbers.EV/EBITDA(x)6.05.44.1StrongerpurchasingpowerfromsavingsthanHK,SingaporeandMacauPrice/book
7、(x)2.21.71.4TotalhouseholdsavingsinChinaasofend-2012wasabout7.7xthetotalChinaOvsGrandOceansBuyresidentialtransactionvaluein2012.ForHongKong,theratiowasmuchlower(0081.HK),HKD7.31at3.4xusingthesamebasisofcalculation.Thisratioisalsomarkedlylowerin2012A2013E2014ESingaporeandMacauat
