资源描述：
《demand forecasting for inventory control auxiliary forecasts》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。
1、Chapter12AuxiliaryForecasts12.1IntroductionManagementoftenneedsforecastsunlikethemodelsdescribedintheearlierchap-tersthataregeneratedusingtheflowofdemandsfromthehistorymonths.Thischapterdescribessomeofthemorecommonlyneededforecastsofthistype.Afirstconcernstheforecastsforthefirstfu
2、turemonthandthedemand-to-dateasthemonthisprogressing.Forthefirstmonth,aforecasthasalreadybeengenerated,andasthemonthprogresses,thedemand-to-datedemandisevolving.Theforecastfortheremainingportionofthemonthisgeneratedalongwiththeassociatedstandarddeviation.Anotherscenariooccursforpa
3、rtswhensomedemandsareorderedforfu-turedeliveries,calledadvancedemands.Aforecastforthefuturemonthhasalreadybeengeneratedintheusualwayfromtheflowofhistorydemands.Anadjustmenttothefuturemonth’sforecastisdevelopedbasedontheadvancedemandinformation.Anothersituationthatoftenoccursinserv
4、icepartsinventoryiswhenaforecastisneededonapartevenwhennohistorydemandsareavailable.Thishappenswhenanewpartisincludedonthebill-of-materialofafinishedgooditemduetoanen-gineeringchangeoraredesign,andthepartistobeimmediatelyheldininventoryattheservicepartlocation.Thissituationiscalle
5、dtheinitialbuyquantity.Anotherconditionthattakesplaceofteninservicepartslocationsiswhenthesupplierwillstopsupplyingthepart,evenwhentheservicepartlocationisobligedtocarrythepartforfuturepossibleneedsfromitscustomers.Thisiscalledtheall-time-buy.12.2Month-1ForecastsandDemand-to-DateS
6、upposeaforecastsystemwherethehistorydemands,x(1),…,x(N),areusedtogeneratetheforecastsforthefuturemonths.Theforecastforfuturemonth-1islistedasx`(1),andtheassociatedstandarddeviationisdenotedasσ.Assumenow©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2015165N.T.Thomopoulos,DemandForecas
7、tingforInventoryControl,DOI10.1007/978-3-319-11976-2_1216612AuxiliaryForecastswhereaportion,w,offuturemonth-1haselapsedandthedemandtodateisx.wNotetheforecastforthisportionofmonth-1wouldbe,Fw=×x1`()wandthecorrespondingstandarddeviationis:=wwAcompatibilitymeasurethatmaybeusefultot
8、hemanagementisshownbelow:kxF/=−(w
