ending the euro crisis

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1、NBERWORKINGPAPERSERIESENDINGTHEEUROCRISIS?MartinS.FeldsteinWorkingPaper20862http://www.nber.org/papers/w20862NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCH1050MassachusettsAvenueCambridge,MA02138January2015TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBure

2、auofEconomicResearch.NBERworkingpapersarecirculatedfordiscussionandcommentpurposes.Theyhavenotbeenpeer-reviewedorbeensubjecttothereviewbytheNBERBoardofDirectorsthataccompaniesofficialNBERpublications.©2015byMartinS.Feldstein.Allrightsreserved.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedtwoparagrap

3、hs,maybequotedwithoutexplicitpermissionprovidedthatfullcredit,including©notice,isgiventothesource.EndingtheEuroCrisis?MartinS.FeldsteinNBERWorkingPaperNo.20862January2015JELNo.E5,E6,H2ABSTRACTAlloftheattemptstoendtheeurocrisisandtoreturntheEurozonecountriestohealthygrowthratesofincome

4、andemploymenthavefailed.Theoptionsthatarecurrentlybeingdiscussedarenotlikelytobemoresuccessful.Ifthereisapoliticallyfeasiblewayoutofthecrisis,itwillbethroughrevenueneutralfiscalincentivesadoptedbytheindividualEurozonecountries.Idescribesomeofthesefiscaloptionsafterreviewingthehistoryo

5、ffailedattemptsandtheoptionsthatarecurrentlyonthetable.MartinS.FeldsteinPresidentEmeritusNBER1050MassachusettsAvenueCambridge,MA02138-5398andNBERmsfeldst@nber.orgENDINGTHEEUROCRISIS?MartinFeldsteinTheremaybenowaytoendtheeurocrisis.Thatwastrueevenbeforetherecentpoliticaldevelopmentsin

6、Greece.Theeurofaceddifficultchallengesfromthebeginning:anattempttoforceaheterogeneousgroupofcountriestouseasinglecurrencywithasingleexchangeratedespitethelackofthedefactolabormobilityandthelargeinterstatefiscaltransfersthatallowtheUnitedStatestooperatesuccessfullywithasinglecurrency.A

7、lloftheattemptstoendtheeurocrisissinceitbeganandreturntheEurozonecountriestohealthygrowthratesofincomeandemploymenthavefailed.Theoptionsthatarecurrentlybeingdiscussedarenotlikelytobemoresuccessful.Ifthereisapoliticallyfeasiblewayoutofthecrisis,itwillbethroughrevenueneutralfiscalincent

8、ivesa