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1、CharlemagneKeepthefireburningWhyGermanyseemsnottowantaquickfixfortheeurocrisisOct1st2011
2、fromtheprinteditionTOHEARGermanysaynotofiscalstimulus,notoboostingtheeurozone’srescuefund,notojointEurobonds,onebeginstowonder:doesitreallywanttoresolvetheeurozone’scrisis?Ofcoursewedo,mostGerm
3、answouldreply.Isnotthechancellor,AngelaMerkel,thefirsttodeclarethat“iftheeurofails,Europewillfail”?IsGermanynotthemainproviderofrescueloanstoGreece,IrelandandPortugal?Allthisistrue.YetMrsMerkelseemstolackasenseofurgency.Despitetheworld’scallsforaction,shedoesnotbelieveinboldstrokes
4、—beitlettingGreecedefault,orissuingEurobondstomutualisegovernments’debt.Onlyaslow,step-by-stepapproachwillwork.Inotherwords,thepain,austerityandmarketturmoilwillgoonfortheforeseeablefuture.Germanpoliticiansareconstrainedbyacomplexfederalsystem,ascepticalpublic,messycoalitionpolitic
5、sandjealousinstitutionssuchastheconstitutionalcourt.MrsMerkelstruggledtopersuademembersofhersquabblingcoalitiontovoteforanexpansionoftheeurozone’sbail-outfundinparliamentthisweek.Butlistencarefullytoseniorofficialsandtheviewisthatnotonlyisitimpossibletostopthecrisisquickly,buttryin
6、gtodosoisharmful.Eurobondsmayprovidereliefintheshortterm,theysay,butthiswoulddiverteffortfromtherealcureofreformingpublicfinancesanduncompetitiveeconomies;theillnessmightthenre-emergeinmorevirulentform.TakeItaly,sayGermanofficials.NosoonerhadtheEuropeanCentralBankintervenedthissumm
7、ertostabiliseitsbondmarketthantheprimeminister,SilvioBerlusconi,retreatedfromhisausterityprogramme,underpressurefromwithinhiscoalition.Fearofdamnation,notwell-meaningexhortation,istheonlywaytorightsinningways.Sotheragingfireinthemarketsshouldnotbequenched;attimesitshouldevenbestoke
8、d,forexamplebydemandingthatprivatecreditorstakelossesonGreekdebt.Therearetwoproblemswiththisview.Oneisthatthefinancialturmoilisweakeninggrowth.Theotheristhatmarketpaniccanbecomeself-fulfilling,inmanydifferentways.Alossofconfidenceinthehealthofsovereignbondsweakensbanksand,inturn,th
9、eweaknessofbankspullsdowns
