a stochastic model to optimize forecast and fulfillment of green roof demand

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1、UrbanForestry&UrbanGreening12(2013)53–60ContentslistsavailableatSciVerseScienceDirectUrbanForestry&UrbanGreeningjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.de/ufugAstochasticmodeltooptimizeforecastandfulfillmentofgreenroofdemandS.W.∗Tsang,C.Y.JimDepartmentofGeograph

2、y,UniversityofHongKong,PokfulamRoad,HongKongarticleinfoabstractKeywords:Increasingdemandforgreenroofsincitieshasgeneratedpressureonthelandscapeindustrytosup-Demandforecastplymaterialsinatimelymanner.Ademand-responsiveoptimal-inventorymodel(DOM)isdeve

3、lopedDemand-responsiveoptimal-inventorytopredictfuturedemandandoptimizecontractorinventoriesofgreenroofcomponents.Unlikeothermodel(DOM)operationsresearchmodels,noassumptionismadeondemanddistribution.Instead,astochasticmodelGreenroofisconstructedbased

4、onbuildingowners’behaviorandtwopertinentextrinsicfactors:changinggov-Inventoryoptimizationernmentmanagementincentivepolicyandincreasingenergyprice.Whenactualdemandexceedspredictedvalue,Operationsundesirablebackorderandinventoryshortfallemerge.Thereve

5、rsescenariocreatessuperfluousinvento-riesandelevatedholdingcost.Asmanagershavescantymarketdatafortherelativelynewproducts,theyusecurrentdemandtopredictnext-perioddemand.Thefindingssuggestadoptingthesafelowerlimitofdemandfluctuationstopreventoverstocking

6、.Thenumericalexperimentfindsthegreatestdemandfluc-tuationsinthefirstyearofthegovernmentreimbursementprogram.Thesensitivityanalysisindicatessensitiveresponseofgreen-roofaccumulateddemandtoextrinsicinfluences.Managerscouldregularlyupdatedemandforecastandin

7、ventorystrategytodovetailwithchangingmarketandpolicyenviron-ment.Thestochasticmodelcouldcapturemostoftheimportantreal-worldfeaturesofthegreen-roofmarketbyrelativelysimplemathematicalexpressions.©2012ElsevierGmbH.Allrightsreserved.IntroductionandHe,20

8、10).Likeotherpassivecoolingtechnologies,evapora-tionisthekeyfactorinheatdissipation,intheformoflatentBuildingsandroadscovermuchofurbanareas,andthepre-heatabsorptionthroughthechangeofstateofwater(Theodosiou,ponderantartificialmaterialsretainasignificant