A stochastic diagnostic model for subway stations.pdf

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1、TunnellingandUndergroundSpaceTechnology25(2010)32–41ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectTunnellingandUndergroundSpaceTechnologyjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/tustAstochasticdiagnosticmodelforsubwaystationsNabilSemaan,TarekZayed*Building,Civil,andEnvironmentalEngineeri

2、ngDepartment,ConcordiaUniversity,Montreal,Quebec,CanadaH3G1M7articleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Performanceofsubwaystationsisacriticalproblemthatfacespublictransitauthoritiesworldwide.Received10March2009Althoughreplacingsubwaystationsisveryexpensive,theSociétédeTransportdeMontre

3、al(STM)andReceivedinrevisedform28July2009mosttransitauthoritieslackplanningstrategiesbecausetheydonothavedeteriorationmodelsfortheirAccepted1August2009infrastructure.ThepresentedresearchinthispaperassistsindevelopingastochasticGlobalStationDiag-Availableonline10September2009nos

4、isModel(GSDM).TheGSDMidentifiesandevaluatestheweightsofdifferentfunctionalconditioncri-teriaforsubwaystations.ItalsoutilizesthePreferenceRankingOrganizationMethodofEnrichmentKeywords:Evaluation(PROMETHEE)integratedwiththeMulti-AttributeUtilityTheory(MAUT)andMonteCarloSubwaystati

5、onsimulationinordertodetermineastochasticGlobalDiagnosisIndex(GDI).DatawerecollectedfromStochasticmodelingMonteCarlosimulationexpertsthroughquestionnairesandinterviews.AcasestudyofsubwaystationsfromtheSTMnetworkPerformanceisselectedtoimplementthedesignedmodel.Resultsshowthatthe

6、GDIforthecasestudystationsrangesfrom5.6to7.8witha95%probability.Performingsensitivityanalysis,the‘AlarmandSecurity’criterionisfoundtobethemosteffectivecriterionontheGDI.Thisresearchisrelevanttoindustrypractitionersandresearcherssinceitprovidesastochasticdiagnostictoolforsubways

7、tations.Ó2009ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.1.IntroductionwaystationconditionassessmentmodelwasdevelopedbySemaan(2006),entitled‘SubwayStationDiagnosisIndex’(SSDI).ThegoalsofeverysubwaytransitauthorityaretoaugmenttheThismodelusesspecificdataforitsinput,chieflythecriterialevelofreli

8、ability,publicsafety,andachieveabetterlevelofser-weigh