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1、JournalofHydrology298(2004)242–266www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrolAnevaluationoftheimpactofmodelstructureonhydrologicalmodellinguncertaintyforstreamflowsimulationMichaelB.Buttsa,*,JeffreyT.Paynea,1,MichaelKristensenb,HenrikMadsenaaRiverandFloodManagementDepartment,WaterResourc
2、esDivision,DHIWaterandEnvironment,AgernAlle11,DK2970Hørsholm,DenmarkbHydrology,SoilandWasteDepartment,WaterResourcesDivision,DHIWaterandEnvironment,AgernAlle11,DK2970Hørsholm,DenmarkReceived11August2003;revised21January2004;accepted29March2004AbstractOperationalfloodmanagemen
3、tandwarningrequiresthedeliveryoftimelyandaccurateforecasts.Theuseofdistributedandphysicallybasedforecastingmodelscanprovideimprovedstreamflowforecasts.However,foroperationalmodellingthereisatrade-offbetweenthecomplexityofthemodeldescriptionsnecessarytorepresentthecatchmentpro
4、cesses,theaccuracyandrepresentativenessoftheinputdataavailableforforecastingandtheaccuracyrequiredtoachievereliable,operationalfloodmanagementandwarning.Foursourcesofuncertaintyoccurindeterministicflowmodelling;randomorsystematicerrorsinthemodelinputsorboundaryconditiondata,ra
5、ndomorsystematicerrorsintherecordedoutputdata,uncertaintyduetosub-optimalparametervaluesanderrorsduetoincompleteorbiasedmodelstructure.Whilemanystudieshaveaddressedtheissuesofsub-optimalparameterestimation,parameteruncertaintyandmodelcalibrationveryfewhaveexaminedtheimpactof
6、modelstructureerrorandcomplexityonmodelperformanceandmodellinguncertainty.Inthisstudyageneralhydrologicalframeworkisdescribedthatallowstheselectionofdifferentmodelstructureswithinthesamemodellingtool.Usingthistoolasystematicinvestigationiscarriedouttodeterminetheperformanceo
7、fdifferentmodelstructuresfortheDMIPstudyBlueRivercatchmentusingasplitsampleevaluationprocedure.Thisinvestigationaddressestwoquestions.First,differentmodelstructuresareexpectedtoperformdifferently,butisthereatrade-offbetweenmodelcomplexityandpredictiveability?Secondly,howdoes
8、themagnitudeofmodelstructureuncertaintycomparetotheothersourcesofuncertaint
