a nested-game interpretation of legislator defection from a dominant political party in japan

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1、AsiaPacificSchoolofEconomicsandGovernmentDISCUSSIONPAPERSPOLICYANDGOVERNANCEynamicsofinter-partyandintra-partycoalitionDbuilding:Anested-gameinterpretationoflegislatordefectionfromadominantpoliticalpartyinJapanYusakuHoriuchiThiamChyeTay04-02AsiaPacificSchoolofEconomicsandGovernmentTHEAUSTRALIA

2、NNATIONALUNIVERSITYhttp://apseg.anu.edu.au©YusakuHoriuchiandThiamChyeTay2004ThePolicyandGovernanceProgramattheAsiaPacificSchoolofEconomicsandGovernmentpublishesaseriesofDiscussionPapersonarangeofpolicyissues,includingissuesofpoliticalinstitutionsandinstitutionaldesign,accountabilityandpublicse

3、ctormanagement,andtherelationshipbetweenpoliticalandeconomicreform.TheDiscussionPapersdisseminateresearchquicklyinordertogeneratecommentsandsuggestionsforrevisionorimprovement.Sincetheyoftenrepresentpreliminaryorincompletework,citationanduseofsuchapapershouldtakeaccountofitsprovisionalcharacte

4、r.Theopinionscontainedintheseriesarethoseoftheauthors,andnotthoseoftheAsiaPacificSchoolofEconomicsandGovernmentatTheAustralianNationalUniversity.DrYusakuHoriuchiisaLecturerintheAsiaPacificSchoolofEconomicsandGovernmentattheAustralianNationalUniversity.ThiamChyeTay

5、eino18@hotmail.com>isagraduatestudentintheDepartmentofPoliticalScienceattheNationalUniversityofSingaporeAbstractUnderwhatconditionsdolegislatorsdefectfromadominantpoliticalparty?WeaskthisquestionwithafocusonthecaseofJapan’sLiberalDemocraticParty(LDP)splitin1993.Basedonanested-gamemodel,whichde

6、pictsfactionsengaginginintra-partyandinter-partycoalitionbuildingsimultaneouslyintwoarenas,wearguethattheanti-mainstreamfactiondefectedbecauseitwasmarginalizedandhadlittlechanceofbeingpowerfulwithintheLDPwhilethepossiblechangeintheelectoralsystemandthesuccessofanewconservativepartyenhanceditse

7、xpectationsofgainingpowerwithintheDiet.PolicyandGovernanceDiscussionPaper04-02DynamicsofInter-PartyandIntra-PartyCoalitionBuilding:ANested-GameInterpretationofLegislatorDefection*FromaDominantPoliticalPartyinJapan**YusakuHoriuchiandThia