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1、ThinkBayesAllenB.DowneyThinkBayesbyAllenB.DowneyCopyright©2013AllenB.Downey.Allrightsreserved.PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.PublishedbyO’ReillyMedia,Inc.,1005GravensteinHighwayNorth,Sebastopol,CA95472.O’Reillybooksmaybepurchasedforeducational,business,orsalespromotionaluse.Onlineeditionsareal
2、soavailableformosttitles(http://my.safaribooksonline.com).Formoreinformation,contactourcorporate/institutionalsalesdepartment:800-998-9938orcorporate@oreilly.com.Editors:MikeLoukidesandAnnSpencerCoverDesigner:RandyComerProductionEditor:MelanieYarbroughInteriorDesigner:DavidFutatoProofreader:Jasmi
3、neKwitynIllustrator:RebeccaDemarestIndexer:AllenDowneySeptember2013:FirstEditionRevisionHistoryfortheFirstEdition:2013-09-10:FirstreleaseSeehttp://oreilly.com/catalog/errata.csp?isbn=9781449370787forreleasedetails.NutshellHandbook,theNutshellHandbooklogo,andtheO’Reillylogoareregisteredtrademarkso
4、fO’ReillyMedia,Inc.ThinkBayes,thecoverimageofaredstripedmullet,andrelatedtradedressaretrademarksofO’ReillyMedia,Inc.Manyofthedesignationsusedbymanufacturersandsellerstodistinguishtheirproductsareclaimedastrademarks.Wherethosedesignationsappearinthisbook,andO’ReillyMedia,Inc.,wasawareofatrade‐mark
5、claim,thedesignationshavebeenprintedincapsorinitialcaps.Whileeveryprecautionhasbeentakeninthepreparationofthisbook,thepublisherandauthorsassumenoresponsibilityforerrorsoromissions,orfordamagesresultingfromtheuseoftheinformationcontainedherein.ISBN:978-1-449-37078-7[LSI]TableofContentsPreface.....
6、..................................................................ix1.Bayes’sTheorem.............................................................1Conditionalprobability1Conjointprobability2Thecookieproblem3Bayes’stheorem3Thediachronicinterpretation5TheM&Mproblem6TheMontyHallproblem7Discussion92.C
7、omputationalStatistics....................................................11Distributions11Thecookieproblem12TheBayesianframework13TheMontyHallproblem14Encapsulatingtheframework15TheM&Mproblem16Discussion17Exercises183
