最新北大ceer 笔记 13教学讲义PPT.ppt

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1、北大ceer笔记13StructureStatecontingentconsumption(依情形而定的消费）State-contingentbudgetconstraintPreferencesunderuncertaintyChoiceunderuncertaintyRiskaversionDiversificationandriskspreadingUncertaintyisPervasiveWhatisuncertainineconomicsystems?tomorrow’spricesfuturewealthfutureavailabilityofcommoditiespre

2、sentandfutureactionsofotherpeople.ContingenciesAstate-contingentconsumptionplanisimplementedonlywhenaparticularstateofNatureoccurs.E.g.takeavacationonlyifthereisnoaccident.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsEach$1ofaccidentinsurancecosts.Consumerhas$mofwealth.Cnaisconsumptionvalueintheno-accident

3、state.Caisconsumptionvalueintheaccidentstate.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCaState-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCa2017Astate-contingentconsumptionwith$17consumptionvalueintheaccidentstateand$20consumptionvalueintheno-accidentstate.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsWithoutinsurance,Ca=m-LC

4、na=m.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendowmentbundle.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-)State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBu

5、y$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-)AndCna=m-(Ca-m+L)/(1-)State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.（K为premium(保费)）Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-)AndCna=m-(Ca-m+L)/(1-)I.e.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendow

6、mentbundle.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendowmentbundle.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendowmentbundle.Whereisthemostpreferredstate-contingentconsumptionplan?PreferencesUnderUncertainty2statesofnature:Atprobabilitya,consumptioniscaAtprobabilityna,consumptioniscnaa+n

7、a=1.UtilityisU(ca,cna,a,na).PreferencesUnderUncertaintyExpectedutilityfunctionVon-Neuman-MorgensternutilityfunctionPreferencesUnderUncertaintyState-contingentconsumptionplansthatgiveequalexpectedutilityareequallypreferred.