经济学人读译Over-the-cliff.doc

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1、【导读】财政悬崖面前，美国需要通过达成财务协议来实现“急刹车”America'seconomy美国经济Overthecliff?跌落悬崖？BarackObamamustdomorethanavoidaneconomicabyss.HehasachancetofixAmerica’sfinances对奥巴马来说，仅仅避免国家陷入经济深渊并不够；他有机会去整顿美国的财务状况Dec15th2012

2、fromtheprinteditionBENBERNANKE,thechairmanoftheFederalRe

3、serve,isnotknownforhisturnsofphrase.But“fiscalcliff”—thetermhecoinedtodescribethetaxincreasesandspendingcutsthatwillhitAmerica’seconomyatthestartof2013unlesspoliticiansagreetoavertthem—hasinspiredsongs(“Thefiscalcliffisadangerzone/It’swheregrownmengowhen

4、budgetsareblown,”croonsMerleHazard,asatiricalsinger)andtelevisioncomedy(JonStewart’s“TheDailyShow”callsit“Cliffpocalypsemageddonacaust”).“财政悬崖”是美联储主席本•伯南克所创造的术语，指2013年初美国经济将面临增税和开支削减的打击（除非政界就如何规避达成协议，否则这种打击无可避免）。伯南克并不以独特辞藻而知名，但“财政悬崖”这个术语给一些词曲作者和银屏谐星带来了灵感

5、——讽刺歌手默尔•哈泽德轻声哼唱：“财政悬崖是一块危险地带/预算猛增时大人们就会去那里”。而乔恩•斯图尔特在《每日秀》中称财政悬崖为“悬崖末世决战之灾”【注1】。Therehavealsobeenmoreseriousconsequences.Theshadowofthefiscalcliffhasdepressedcorporateinvestment.Americanconsumerconfidencehasstartedtowobble.Growthisslowing,perhapstoaslit

6、tleas1%inthefourthquarter.Policymakersaroundtheworldarefretting:Australia’scentralbankhasjustcutrates,citingthecliffasaworry.还有一些更为严重的后果。财政悬崖的阴影让公司投资萎靡不振。美国的消费者信心已经开始动摇。经济增长正在放缓，第四季度增长率可能仅为1%。全球的决策者焦虑不安：澳大利亚央行把财政悬崖视为隐忧，日前下调了利率。Theseworriesareunderstandab

7、lebutoverblown(seearticle).Intheshorttermtheriskofeconomiccatastropheisminimal.Therealthreat—andtherealopportunityforBarackObama—liesinthemediumandlongterm.这种担忧可以理解，但有些过分夸大了（见另文）。在短期内，经济灾难的风险很小。真正的威胁在中长期——同时这也是奥巴马真正的机遇所在。Thelongandtheshortofit个中要点【注2】Ifl

8、awmakersdonothing,Americafacesfiscaltighteningin2013worthupto5%ofGDP.ThatisaGreek-scalesqueeze.Itwouldnottakemanymonthsforittopushthecountryintorecession.Acompletestand-offbetweenMrObamaandCongresswouldleadtodisasterevensooner,forunlessAmerica’slawmakers

9、votetoincreasethe“debtceiling”(themaximumamountofdebtthattheTreasurycanissue)byaroundMarch,thefederalgovernmentwillbeunabletopayitsbills—including,potentially,itsbondholders.Thedamagefromaself-induceddefaultwoulddwarfevent