经济学人读译emerging markets新兴市场the great slowdown大衰退

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1、Emergingmarkets新兴市场Thegreatslowdown大衰退Astickyspellfortheemergingworldcarrieswarningsforitslong-termgrowth新兴世界面临的困难时期为其长期发展敲响了警钟①006Leaders-Emergingmarkets.mp3(2.37MB,下载次数:391)Jul21st2012

2、fromtheprinteditionINTHEpastdecadeemergingmarketshaveestablishedthemselvesastheworld’sbes

3、tsprinters.AsserialcrisestrippedupAmericaandthenEurope,Chinabarelybrokestride.Otherbigdevelopingnationspausedforbreathonlybriefly.Investorsbetheavilythatrapidgrowthinemergingmarketswasthenewnormal,whileleadersfromBeijingtoBrasílialecturedtheworldonthevirtuesoftheirstate-centr

4、iceconomicmodels.在过去十年中，新兴市场作为全世界发展最快的经济体这一地位已经确立。美国、欧洲相继深陷系列危机泥潭，踉踉跄跄；而中国却阵脚不乱。其它发展中大国也只是在经济长跑中稍作喘息。投资者认为新兴市场的快速增长是一种新常态，下注豪赌；中国和巴西的领导人则在世界各地发表演讲，宣传以国家为中心的经济模式的种种优点。Lately,though,thesprintershavestartedtowheeze.LastweekChinareporteditsslowestgrowthinthreeyears(seearticle).In

5、diarecentlyrecordeditsweakestperformancesince2004.Brazilhasvirtuallystalled.ThisweektheInternationalMonetaryFundsharplycutitsgrowthforecastforthreeofthefourso-calledBRICs;onlyRussiawasspared(andeventheregrowthisvulnerabletofallingenergyprices).Someinvestorsdarklyrecallthedeve

6、lopingworld’scrisis-pronehistoryandwonderwhethertheworstisyettocome.但最近这些“经济冲刺国家”也开始有些上气不接下气了。中国在上周发布报告，称目前是三年以来经济增长最为缓慢的时期（见另文）。印度经济近来也处于自2004年以来的最低谷。巴西几乎陷入停滞。本周，国际货币基金组织（IMF）大幅下调了对所谓的“金砖四国”②其中之三的增长预测；只有俄罗斯幸免（而即使在俄罗斯，由于能源价格下跌，经济增长也十分脆弱）。有些投资者黯然回首发展中国家那易受危机影响的过去，担心今后是否会出现更为糟糕

7、的情况。Nocrisislooms,butseriousconcernisjustified,fortheemergingworldfacestwodistinctrisks:acyclicalslowdownandalonger-termerosionofpotentialgrowth.Thefirstshouldbereasonablyeasytodealwith.Thesecondwillnot.目前危机尚未逼近，但完全有理由对此加以重视。因为新兴世界面临着两大明确风险：一是周期性衰退，二是长期增长乏力。前者应当较为容易处理，后者就未必如此

8、了。Revivalofthefittest适者复苏③Byrich-worldstandards,theemergingmarketsarestilldoingexceedinglywell.TheIMFstillreckonsdevelopingeconomieswillgrowby5.6%thisyear.Moreover,thisdecelerationispartlyintentional.Whentheglobalfinancialcrisisstruck,emergingeconomiesrespondedenergetically:C

9、hinalaunchedahugestimulus,Brazil’sstate-ownedbankslavishedcredit,int