利用Excel进行统计分析-Chapter17-Decision Making课件.ppt

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1、StatisticsforManagersUsingMicrosoft®Excel5thEditionChapter17DecisionMaking1LearningObjectivesInthischapter,youlearn:TousepayofftablesanddecisiontreestoevaluatealternativecoursesofactionTouseseveralcriteriatoselectanalternativecourseofactionTouseBayes’the

2、oremtoreviseprobabilitiesinlightofsampleinformationAbouttheconceptofutility2StepsinDecisionMakingListAlternativeCoursesofActionChoicesoractionsListUncertainEventsPossibleeventsoroutcomesDetermine‘Payoffs’AssociateaPayoffwithEachEvent/OutcomecombinationAdop

3、tDecisionCriteriaEvaluateCriteriaforSelectingtheBestCourseofAction3PayoffTableProfitin$1,000’s(Events)InvestmentChoice(Action)LargeFactoryAverageFactorySmallFactoryStrongEconomyStableEconomyWeakEconomy20050-12090120-30403020Apayofftableshowsalternatives,st

4、atesofnature,andpayoffs4DecisionTreeLargefactorySmallfactoryAveragefactoryStrongEconomyStableEconomyWeakEconomyStrongEconomyStableEconomyWeakEconomyStrongEconomyStableEconomyWeakEconomyPayoffs20050-12040302090120-305OpportunityLossProfitin$1,000’s(Events)I

5、nvestmentChoice(Action)LargeFactoryAverageFactorySmallFactoryStrongEconomyStableEconomyWeakEconomy20050-12090120-30403020Theaction“Averagefactory”haspayoff90for“StrongEconomy”.Given“StrongEconomy”,thechoiceof“Largefactory”wouldhavegivenapayoffof200,or110hi

6、gher.Opportunityloss=110forthiscell.Opportunitylossisthedifferencebetweenanactualpayoffforanactionandtheoptimalpayoff,givenaparticulareventPayoffTable6OpportunityLossOpportunityLossin$1,000’s(Events)InvestmentChoice(Action)LargeFactoryAverageFactorySmallFa

7、ctoryStrongEconomyStableEconomyWeakEconomy070140110050160900PayoffTableOpportunityLossTableProfitin$1,000’s(Events)InvestmentChoice(Action)LargeFactoryAverageFactorySmallFactoryStrongEconomyStableEconomyWeakEconomy20050-12090120-304030207DecisionCriteriaEx

8、pectedMonetaryValue(EMV)TheexpectedprofitfortakingactionAjExpectedOpportunityLoss(EOL)TheexpectedopportunitylossfortakingactionAjExpectedValueofPerfectInformation(EVPI)Theexpectedopportunitylossfromthebestdec