美国中小型生物科技行业2020年下半年策略分析.docx

《美国中小型生物科技行业2020年下半年策略分析.docx》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、COREU.S.Small&MidCapBiotechnology2H20CatalystPreviewsforRCUS,INDUSTRYUPDATEEquityResearch16July2020IMMU,andXNCRWeareaddingtoouranalysisof2HcatalystswithdatapreviewsforRCUS,IMMU,andXNCR—complementingourprior152Hcatalystspreviews.Weseesignificantupsidefor:1)IMMU—webelievethelaunchin3L

2、TNBCiswellpositionedwithencouragingdatainTNBC,withpotentialupsidefromuseinHR+/HER2-breastcancerandurothelialcancer:2)RCUS—weexpectTIGITdatatobeonparwithRoche’sdatainlungcancer,weexpectinitialrandomizedPhase2dataforAB154toshowanORRabove60%andafavorablesafetyprofile;and3)finally,despite

3、ourUnderweightratingXencor’sPhase1dataforplamotamab(CD20xCD3)inDLBCLcouldbethesischanging–wewanttoseeanORR>30%withlongerfollowupandlowratesofGrade>3cytokinereleasesyndromeamidacompetitivelandscape.Seebelowforourdetailedanalysesandestimatedimpactonthestockaroundthese2Hcatalysts.IMMU(OW

4、,$48PT):2H20–Webelievesacituzumabiswellpositionedforasuccessfullaunchin3Ltriplenegativebreastcancer(TNBC)drivenbythreefactors;1)encouragingdataintheTNBCsetting;2)verypositiveKOLfeedback;and3)potentialofflabelusebaseduponpositivedatainHR+/HER2-breastcancerandurothelialcancer.Weassigna7

5、0%likelihoodtoasuccessfullaunch,potentiallydrivingthestockup20%,whileanegativelaunchcoulddrivethestockdown10%.Forsacituzumabin3LTNBC,weareinitiallyprojectingpeakprobabilityadjustedsalesofapproximately$490mnin2025.–seeourpreviewonpage5.RCUS(OW,$35PT):4Q20–WeexpectinitialPhase2dataforAB

6、154(anti-TIGIT)+AB122(anti-PD1)toshowanORRabove60%andafavorablesafetyprofilewithmanageabletoxicities.Weassigna70%likelihoodtopositiveresults,potentiallydrivingthestockup40%,whilenegativeresultscoulddrivethestockdown20%.ForAB154(anti-TIGIT)inNSCLC,weprojectpeakprobability-adjustedsales

7、of~$260mnby2029,or$9ofour$35pricetarget–seeourpreviewonpage9.XNCR(UW,$28PT):2H20–WeexpectadditionalPhase1dataforPlamotamabtodemonstrateanORR>30%withlongerfollowupandamanageabletoxicityprofilewithlowratesofGrade>3cytokinereleasesyndrome.WebelievethatpositivedataforPlamotamabin2H20is60%

8、likel