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1、Livestock,Dairy,andPoultryOutlookCOVID-19DisruptionsDroveIncreasesin2020ChoiceBeefValuesandSpreadsWilliamHahnCOVID-19-relatedincreasesinretailpriceshavegarneredconsiderableattentionsinceearlyspring.USDA’sEconomicResearchServicehaspublishedmonthly“pric
2、espreads”dataforbeefandporksince1970,whichcomparethevalueofananimalanditsproductatthedifferentlevelsofthemarketingchain.ThepricespreadforbeefestimatesthevalueofaChoicesteeratthefarmandthewholesaleandretailvaluesofitsbeefproduct.Shiftsindemandcausedbyt
3、heCOVID-relatedshelter-in-placeordersandlossofpackingplantcapacityduetosickworkerscausedlargeincreasesinthewholesalebeefvalues,partofwhichhavebeenpassedontoconsumersashigherretailprices.InMay2020,inflation-adjustedretailandwholesalebeefvalueswere295.8
4、centsand249.1centsperpound,respectively.Althoughthesevalueshaveincreased25percentand97percent,respectively,sinceJanuary2020,theinflation-adjustedrecordhighforthewholesalebeefvaluewas280.0centsperpound,setinAugust1973.Theinflation-adjustedrecordhighfor
5、theretailbeefvaluewas330.8centsperpound,setinSeptember1973.Thefigurebelowshowsthemaximum,average,andminimuminflation-correctedwholesalevaluesforbeefforeachdecade,startingwiththe1970s,andtheactualvaluesforthefirst5monthsof2020.Wholesalevaluesintheearly
6、partof2020wereclosetotheiraveragesforthepreviousdecade.Inflation-adjustedwholesalevaluesforChoicebeefApprovedbyUSDA’sWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoardEconomicResearchService
7、SituationandOutlookReportLDP-M-313
8、July16,2020NextreleaseisAugust18,2020Centsperr
9、etailpound300.0250.0200.0150.0100.050.00.0Source:USDA,EconomicResearchService.maximumaverageminimumactualBeef/Cattle:Thesecond-quarter2020forecastforbeefproductionwasraisedonrecentslaughterdata.Third-andfourth-quarter2020forecastswereraisedonheavierc
10、arcassweightsandfasterexpectedpaceofslaughter.Theincreaseinslaughterandcarcassweightselevatedtheannualbeefproductionforecastto26.9billionpounds.Fedsteerpricesin2020wereloweredonrecentpricedataandthelargesupplyoffedcattle.May’sbeefimportsfell9p
