中国在冰岛和格陵兰的北极战略.docx

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1、Executivesummary11Redflag:wakinguptoChinaintheArctic42Presencebeforepower:whyChinabecameanear-Arcticstate62.1Buildingpresence:thelong-termdriversbehindChina’sengagementwiththeArctic72.2Chokepoints:theArcticaspartofChina’smaritimestrategy92.3Geopoliticsonice:howChinaisshapingRussianandUSArctic

2、policy122.4Conclusion:whyChinaisintheArctic193Iceland:whatisChinadoingthereandwhy?203.1Thepresenceofvoids(I):howChinacametoIceland213.2APotemkinpresence?AstrategicperspectiveonChina’spresenceinIceland254Greenland:whatisChinadoingthereandwhy?294.1Thepresenceofvoids(II):howChinacametoGreenland3

3、04.2Acontestedpresence?AstrategicperspectiveonChina’spresenceinGreenland355Thepowerofpresence:engagingChinaintheArctic385.1China’sArcticstrategy385.2EUArcticstrategy405.3Dutchstrategy41When,in2018,thePeople’sRepublicofChinapublisheditsfirstArcticstrategy,claimingthattheMiddleKingdomisa‘near-A

4、rcticstate’,manyasniggercouldbeheardthroughouttheworldofArcticdiplomacy.Yet,itisquicklybecomingclearthatChinahasbuiltageostrategicpresenceintheArcticthatisnottobesniggeredat.Itisalreadyreshapingcircumpolarpoliticsinfundamentalways.Therefore,thisClingendaelreportaimstoanswerthefollowingquestio

5、ns:•Whatarethelong-termdriversbehindChina’sgrowingpresenceintheArctic?•HowisChinacurrentlyshapingArcticrelations?•HowshouldEuropeandtheNetherlandsengagewithChina’sgrowingpresenceintheArctic?Presencebeforepower:whatarethelong-termdriversbehindChina’sgrowingpresenceintheArctic?China’sengagement

6、withtheArcticwasbornasageopoliticalconundrum:inthemidstoftheColdWartheArcticwasseenasavitalpartofChina’ssecurityenvironment,overwhichithadnocontrol.FollowingChina’spolicyofopeningup,China’sArcticengagementwasfurtherfuelledbycommercialinterestsdevelopedwithinthecontextofitsmaritimestrategy,and

7、ledtoChinaplayinganincreasinglyinfluentialroleinscientificexplorationandArcticgovernance.SinceXiJinpingtookofficein2012,China’sArcticpolicyhasadoptedanexplicitgeopoliticalpurpose,withinthecontextofChina’sgeo-economicexpansion,maritimeambition