资源描述：
《罗纳德 麦金农 中国盯住汇率制度与日本经验评价.doc》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。
1、WhyChinaShouldKeepitsExchangeRatePeggedtotheDollar:AHistoricalPerspectivefromJapanRonaldMcKinnon1StanfordUniversityChina’sfixeditsexchangerateat8.28yuantothedollarfrom1994toJuly21,2005,andhasonlyallowedasmall,tightlycontrolled,appreciationsincethen.China’sprod
2、uctivitygrowthhasbeenveryhighrelativetomostothercountries,itstradesurplushasbeenrising,anditcontinuestoaccumulatelargedollarexchangereserves.Theresulthasbeen“Chinabashing”withstrongAmericanpressureonChinatoappreciatefurther.AlthoughappreciationneednotreduceChi
3、na’stradesurplus,thethreatthereofwillreducenominalinterestrates—ashappenedintheearliererafrom1978to1995of“Japanbashing”andyenappreciation.Theresultingdeflationfromtheovervaluedyen,coupledwithazerointerestliquiditytrap,ledtoJapan’s“lostdecade”ofthe1990s.Itcould
4、happentoChinainthenewmillennium.FromJapanBashingtoChinaBashingSincetheearly1980s,structuralfiscaldeficitsintheUnitedStatesandverylowpersonalsavinghavecontributedtorising“globalimbalances”,i.e.,arisingU.S.currentaccountdeficitfinancedbyheavyborrowingbytheUnited
5、Statesindollarsfromtherestoftheworld.2Withonlyabriefrespiteinthelastquarterof1991whentheU.Scurrentaccountbrieflytouchedzero,Figure1showstheU.S.deficitapproaching7percentofGDPin2006.MuchoftherealcounterpartofthisfinancialtransfercomesfromthehighsavingEastAsianc
6、ountries,principallyJapanandnowChina,collectivelyrunninglargetradesurpluses,mainlyinmanufactures,withtheUnitedStates.(Figure1showstheirsurplusesasaproportionoftheirsmallerGDPs).However,since2003,thesurplusesofthepetroleumproducingcountrieshavealsobecomeimporta
7、nt.ThemanufacturingtradesurplusesoftheEastAsiancountries,incombinationwithexchangeratestabilizationagainstthedollar,resultedinlargeaccumulationsofofficialexchangereserves(mainlydollars).TheseledtoincreasingmercantilistpressurefromEuropeandthe
8、UnitedStatesforAsiancountriestoappreciatetheircurrencies.Inparticular,China,acountrywithremarkablyhighsavingrelativetoitshugedomesticinvestment,hascomeunderheavyforeignpressuretoap
