普氏全球钢铁和大宗材料团队电话会议纪要.docx

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1、EquityResearchAmericas

2、UnitedStatesUSMetals&MiningHighlightsfromConferenceCallwithPlattsGlobalSteelandBulkMaterialsTeam;TranscriptIncludedMetals&Mining

3、SectorReviewWehostedaconferencecalltodaywiththreemembersfromtheS&PGlobalPlattsteamtodiscusscurrenttrendsinth

4、eseaborneironoreandcokingcoalmarketsaswellastheNorthAmericansteelmarket.IncludedfromPlattswereHectorForster(bulks),MichaelFitzgerald(steel)andNickRuggiero(derivatives).WeviewedthecallasbullishforcokingcoaldynamicsandgenerallyneutraltobearishforironoreandUSstee

5、lmarkets.Highlightsbelow:SteelPriceNearingaPeakasLeadTimesSoften:Leadtimeswerestartingtosoften,withHRCnowasshortastwoweeksandpricesfallingbacksomeoverthepastweek.Whilestillearlyinthemonth,Plattsnotedprimescrapsupplywouldincreaseasautomotiveproductionscalesback

6、uprelativelyquicklyandlikelycausesprimescrappremiumvs.obsoletetoreturntomorenormalizedlevels.Primescrapwassaidtodeclinepotentially$20-30/toninJuly.BlastfurnaceandEAFrestartsarenowacceleratingwithJSWrestartingtheelectricarcatMingoJunctionthisweekandotherblastfu

7、rnaceseitherrampingorsettorampinthecomingweeksfromallmajorintegratedmills.Wenotethat~1.1mtofrawsteelisrequiredtoproduceonevehicleand~0.5mtofcokingcoal.BlastFurnaceRestartstoAddMoreSpotSupply:IntegratedmillsneedtorestartfurnacestomeettheJITdeliveryrequirementsf

8、orautomotiveproducers,forwhichvolumesareunderoneyearcontractswithfixedprices.Thestrongmarginsandcashflowassociatedwithautomotiveandappliancedealssuggestsintegratedmillswillbesomewhatagnostictospotpricelevels,especiallyastheyhavevolumecommitmentstotheautomotive

9、OEMs.Theincreasedblastfurnaceproductionwhichwillpartiallybepushedintothespotmarket,coupledwithrisingprimescrapsupplylikelysetthestageforlowersteelpricesintheAugustorSeptemberperiodoncesupplychainsnormalize.CokingCoal–ChinaDemandNearRecordHighwhileRoWat10YearLo

10、w:ThecontrastinS/DfundamentalsbetweenironoreandcokingcoalcouldnotbemoredifferenttodayasconfirmedbyYTDpricemovements.WhileChinesepigironproductionrecentlyreachedrecordlevels,RoWcont