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1、ABGlobalResearch27March2020USEnergyTranscriptfromExpertCallwithS&PGlobalRatingsS&PGlobalCreditConferenceCallEarlierthisweek,UBSUSEnergyteamhostedacallwithS&PGlobalRatingsAgencythatincludedThomasWatters&MichaelGrande.ThomasisaManagingDirectorwhosecurrentroleisSectorSpecialistfort
2、heOil&Gas(upstream&oilservices)andChemicalsIndustrieswhileservingasanalyticsleader&industryspokesperson.MichaelisaSeniorDirectorcoveringInfrastructure,Midstream&MerchantPower;histeam'scoverageincludesmostMLPs,oilrefineries,pipelinecompanies,andpowerprojects.Seetranscriptfromtheca
3、llstartingonpage2.Upstream:LessPatienceTheprimaryupstreammessagefromthecallwasthatS&PGlobalexpectstohavelesspatiencethaninpastdownturns,withaWTIoil/HHnaturalgaspricedeckof~$25/~$2,$45/~$2.25,and$50/~$2.50for2020,2021,2022andbeyond,respectivelywithBrentata~$5perbblpremiumtoWTI.And
4、whiletheybelievedtheE&Psarealsogenerallyinbettershapethaninpastcycles(havingcomefroma$55/bblWTIbasevs$90or$100inthelastcycle),thecapitalmarketsarefarlessaccommodatingthiscycle.CouplethatwithaconcernthatE&Pscantakeoutlesscoststhaninthepast,anditslimitedwillingnesstoconsiderassetdi
5、vestituresinitsanalysis,andS&Pexpectsmoreupstreamdowngrades.Sincethecall,theagencydidaffirmCXO's"BBB-"longtermcreditrating,whiledowngradingOXY,MROandAPA.S&Pcommentedthatithopedtohavethemajorityofitsratingsreviewedshortly.Midstream:Counterparties,LiquidityandRe-contractingRisksS&P
6、seesthemidstreamsectorasbeingbetterpreparedtoweatherthisdownturnvs.'15-'16,butnotedtherearestillanumberofrisks,includingcounterpartyriskandcontractsrollingoff.Inparticular,S&PseesG&Pswithonlyacreagededicationsandvolumetricexposureatrisk.S&PmonitorsliquidityandHYnameswithdebtandre
7、volversmaturingthisyearandnotestheyaremostatrisk.TheysaidthatinsomecasesIGnameswilllikelyneedtocutdividends/distributionstoremainIGrated.ET,inthepasthasdefendeditsIGcreditratingandlikelyeverythingisonthetabletomaintainitthistimearoundaswell.Onbuyingbackdiscounteddebt,S&Psaiditisa
8、noptionforIGnames,whileHYMidstreamshould
