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1、激励与组织专题报告ReversalofFortune: GeographyandInstitutionsintheMakingoftheModernWorldIncomeDistributionAcemoglu,JohnsonandRobinson,2002QuarterlyJournalofEconomics罗凯2005年6月9日1Background2TwocompetitivehypothesesGeographyhypothesisThepersistenceprediction:totheextentthatgeographicfacto
2、rsdonotchangeoverperiodsof500yearsormore,countriesthatwererelativelyrich500yearsagoshouldberelativelyrichtoday.Ifclimate,transportcosts,thetimingoftheNeolithicrevolutionandtheimpactofdiseasematterforincometoday,theyshouldhavematteredatleastasmuchbeforeEuropeanscameintocontactw
3、iththeinhabitantsofthecolonies.3TwocompetitivehypothesesInstitutionshypothesissocietieswithasocialorganizationthatprovidesencouragementforinvestmentwillprosper.Theorganizationofsocietyandinstitutionsalsopersist.(AccordingtoAcemoglu,JohnsonandRobinson,2001).However,amajorshockl
4、iketheinstitutionalreversal—Europeancolonialismledtotheestablishmentof,orcontinuationofalreadyexisting,extractiveinstitutionsinpreviouslyprosperousareasandtothedevelopmentofinstitutionsofprivatepropertyinpreviouslypoorareas—candisrupttheorganizationofagroupofsocieties,andpredi
5、ctsareversalinrelativeincomesamongthesecountries.4TechnologyOLS2SLSNaturalExperiment5Proxiesforeconomicprosperityin1500UrbanizationKuznets(1968,p.1)Bairoch(1988)FigureA1Table2,Columns1-6Figure3Table2,Columns7-10;paneldata;urbanizationandincomepercapitaspanningover200years6Figu
6、reA17Proxiesforeconomicprosperityin1500UrbanizationKuznets(1968,p.1)Bairoch(1988)FigureA1Table2,Columns1-6Figure3Table2,Columns7-10;paneldata;urbanizationandincomepercapitaspanningover200years8Table2,Columns1-69Proxiesforeconomicprosperityin1500UrbanizationKuznets(1968,p.1)Bai
7、roch(1988)FigureA1Table2,Columns1-6Figure3Table2,Columns7-10;paneldata;urbanizationandincomepercapitaspanningover200years10Figure311Proxiesforeconomicprosperityin1500UrbanizationKuznets(1968,p.1)Bairoch(1988)FigureA1Table2,Columns1-6Figure3Table2,Columns7-10;paneldata;urbaniza
8、tionandincomepercapitaspanningover200years12Table2,Columns7-1
