应用层次贝斯模型研究气候变化对威塔流域流量的影响.pdf

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1、June．2012JournalofResourcesandEcologyVb1．3No．2J．Resour．Eco1．20123(2)118-128DOI：10．5814~．issn．1674-764x．2012．02．003w、^，w．jorae．caApplicationofaFullHierarchicalBayesianModelinAssessingStreamflowResponsetoaClimateChangeScenarioattheCoweetaBasin，NC，USAwuWei．JamesS．CL

2、ARK’andJamesM．VOSE1NicholasSchooloftheEnvironment，DukeUniversity,Durham，NC27708，USA；2USDA—ForestService，CoweetaHydrologicLaboratory,Otto，NC28763，USAAbstract：Wehaveappliedafullhierarchica1Baysian(HB)modeltosimulatestreamflowattheCoweetaBasinthatdrainswesternNorthC

3、arolina，USAunderadoubledC02climatescenario．ThefullHBmodelcoherentlyassimilatedmultipledatasourcesandaccountedforuncertaintiesfromdata，parametersandmodelstructures．Ful1predictivedistributionsforstreamftowfromtheBayesiananalysislndicatenotonlyincreasingdrought．with

4、substantia1decreaseii1fallandsummerflows，andsoilmoisturecontent，butalsoincreaseinthefrequencyoffloodeventswhentheywerefitwithGeneralizedExtremeValue(GEV)distributionandGeneralizedParetoDistribution(GPD)underthisdoubledCO。climatescenariocomparedtothecurrentclimate

5、scenario．FullpredictivedistributionsbasedonthehierarchicalBayesianmode1．comparedtodeterministicpointestimates，iscapableofprovidingricherinformationtofacilitatedevelopmentofadaptationstrategytochangingclimateforasustainablewaterresourcemanagement．Keywords：hierarch

6、icalBayes；hydrologicalmodeling；climatechange；uncertainty；hydrologicalextremestemperateones，wouldexperienceincreasedsummer1Intr0dUCtiOndryingfromgreaterevapotranspiration，andmaybelowerPotentialvulnerabilityoffreshwatersuppliestoclimatesummerprecipitation(Neilsonan

7、dMarks1994；Gleickchangeisunderscoredbytherecentwidespreaddroughts1987；Jacksonela1．200l；Loukaseta1．2002；Knsby口f．andfloodsovertheworld．Understandinghowthehydrologic2007)．Incontrast，tropicalregionsmayexperiencerelativelycyclerespondsandcontributestoglobalwanningisne

8、ededsmallerwarming．inducedchangesinthehydrologicalcycletoanticipatesecurityoffreshwatersupplyandassessrisks(IPCC1996；JacksonetaI．20011．Thepredictedimpactofther