介绍operationmanagement项目管理.ppt

《介绍operationmanagement项目管理.ppt》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。

1、3Forecasting3-2LearningObjectivesListtheelementsofagoodforecast.Outlinethestepsintheforecastingprocess.Describeatleastthreequalitativeforecastingtechniquesandtheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofeach.Compareandcontrastqualitativeandquantitativeapproachestoforecasting.3-3LearningObjectiv

2、esBrieflydescribeaveragingtechniques,trendandseasonaltechniques,andregressionanalysis,andsolvetypicalproblems.Describetwomeasuresofforecastaccuracy.Describetwowaysofevaluatingandcontrollingforecasts.Identifythemajorfactorstoconsiderwhenchoosingaforecastingtechnique.3-4FORECAST:Ast

3、atementaboutthefuturevalueofavariableofinterestsuchasdemand.Forecastingisusedtomakeinformeddecisions.Long-rangeShort-range3-5ForecastsForecastsaffectdecisionsandactivitiesthroughoutanorganizationAccounting,financeHumanresourcesMarketingMISOperationsProduct/servicedesign3-6Accounti

4、ngCost/profitestimatesFinanceCashflowandfundingHumanresourcesHiring/recruiting/trainingMarketingPricing,promotion,strategyMISIT/ISsystems,servicesOperationsSchedules,MRP,workloadsProduct/servicedesignNewproductsandservicesUsesofForecastsIseethatyouwillgetanAthissemester.3-7Assume

5、scausalsystempast==>futureForecastsrarelyperfectbecauseofrandomnessForecastsmoreaccurateforgroupsvs.individualsForecastaccuracydecreasesastimehorizonincreasesFeaturesofForecasts3-8ElementsofaGoodForecastTimelyAccurateReliableMeaningfulWrittenEasytouse3-9StepsintheForecastingProc

6、essStep1DeterminepurposeofforecastStep2EstablishatimehorizonStep3SelectaforecastingtechniqueStep4Obtain,cleanandanalyzedataStep5MaketheforecastStep6Monitortheforecast“Theforecast”3-10TypesofForecastsJudgmental:usessubjectiveinputsTimeseries:useshistoricaldata,assumingthefuturewill

7、belikethepastAssociativemodels:usesexplanatoryvariablestopredictthefuture3-11JudgmentalForecastsExecutiveopinionsSalesforceopinionsConsumersurveysOutsideopinionDelphimethodOpinionsofmanagersandstaffAchievesaconsensusforecast3-12TimeSeriesForecastsTrend:long-termmovementindataSeaso

8、nality:short-termregularvariation