飞轮电池生产计划制定张明.doc

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1、飞轮电池生产计划的制定•市场需求预测-----------------------4•实际产品的生产工艺路线分析--------10•生产方式的经济分析和比较----------11•制定综合生产计划------------------13•生产能力的粗平衡------------------14•制定主生产计划--------------------14•制定MRP,CRP----------------------14•生产能力的精平衡------------------39•零件工序卡编制-----------

2、---------39•产品装配工序卡编制----------------411.市场需求预测（Marketforecast）实验数据month1month2month3month4month5month6month7month8month9month10month11month12year91824211020272311222926quarter？？？？根据给出的数据，选择一种模型来预测下一年的市场需求量，属于长期预。从给出的数据分析可以得出，每年的同一月份市场需求量比较接近，而同一年份的不同月份之间存在较大的差

3、异，市场需求量与时间季节因素有关。方案一：SeasonalizedTimeSeiriesRegression的模型来进行市场预测。预测结果如下：SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)***SEASONALIZEDTIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-------------------------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:Untitled-------------------------

4、------------------------------------------FORECASTSales--------------------------ABSOLUTEYEARMONTHACTUALREGRESSIONSEASONALIZEDERROR119.00017.5338.7660.2341218.00017.98217.9820.0181324.00018.43024.5730.5731421.00018.87922.0251.0251510.00019.3279.6640.3361620.000

5、19.77619.7760.2241727.00020.22426.9660.0341823.00020.67324.1181.1181911.00021.12110.5610.43911022.00021.57021.5700.43011129.00022.01829.3580.35811226.00022.46726.2120.212-------------------------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(

6、90%)YEARMONTHFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND2111.45810.91012.0062223.36422.26824.4602331.75030.28933.2122428.30527.02629.584REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=17.0844b=0.4486FORECAST=Y*SEASONALINDEX(i)R=0.942R-SQUARE=0.8872MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MA

7、D)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=0.333MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.283MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.131STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.605SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.500SEASONALINDEX(2)=1.000SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.333SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.167由决定系数R=0.942和相关系数R2=0.8872，预测结果

8、准确性很高。预测的误差在合理的范围内，预测结果如下：month1month2month3month4year212243228方案二：TIMESERIESREGRESSION模型进行预测预测结果如下：SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)***TIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***--------