课程设计--飞轮电池生产计划的制定

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1、飞轮电池生产计划的制定目录1.市场需求预测2.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析3.生产方式的经济分析和比较4.制定综合生产计划5.生产能力的粗平衡6.制定主生产计划7.制定MRP,CRP8.生产能力的精平衡9.零件工序卡编制10.产品装配工序卡编制２７1.市场需求预测（Marketforecast）HistoricalRecord(AggregateDemand)Month1Month2Month3Month4Year19182421Year210202723Year311222926Year4由上表所给的数据作出判断可知市场需求与

2、时间季节因素有关，***SEASONALIZEDTIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-----------------------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:Untitled-----------------------------------------------------------------FORECASTSales--------------------------ABSOLUTEYEARSEASONA

3、CTUALREGRESSIONSEASONALIZEDERROR119.00017.5338.7660.2341218.00017.98217.9820.0181324.00018.43024.5730.5731421.00018.87922.0251.0252110.00019.3279.6640.3362220.00019.77619.7760.2242327.00020.22426.9660.0342423.00020.67324.1181.1183111.00021.12110.5610.4393222.00021.5

4、7021.5700.4303329.00022.01829.3580.3583426.00022.46726.2120.212-----------------------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(80%)YEARSEASONFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND4111.45811.04311.873REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bX２７WHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIOD

5、a=17.0844b=0.4486FORECAST=Y*SEASONALINDEX(i)R=0.942R-SQUARE=0.8872MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST12PERIODS=0.417MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.283MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.131STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.605SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.500SEASONALIND

6、EX(2)=1.000SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.333SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.167预测结果如下：Month1234FORECASTyears4122431292.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(ProductProcessAnalysis)零件代号零件名称零件材料零件工艺过程leadtimeMLF-11底板Q235-A锻造，车削，钻孔、扩孔1MLF09-02磁环电工纯铁模锻，车削，铣削1MLF-07-05电磁铁内侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造,车削，精铣，钻孔，扩孔，精车2２７MLF-12电器定位板铝合金铸造,车

7、削，钻孔，扩孔，1MLF-07-03电磁铁外侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造,车削，精铣，钻孔，扩孔，精车2MLF-09-01盘片45铸造,车削，铣削，钻孔，扩孔2MLF-07-06电磁铁夹紧装置铝合金铸造,铣削,钻孔，扩孔1MLF-07-04电磁铁铁心DW315-50锻造1MLF-03外壳Q235-A锻造，车削，钻孔、扩孔1MLF-05外转子电机套筒Q235-A锻造，焊接，车削，钻孔、扩孔2MLF-09-03压环45铸造,车削，铣削，钻孔，扩孔23.生产方式的经济分析与比较(AlternativePlansComparison)Mach

8、inecapacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemblecapacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生产28台。２７平均每月的需求为：Q=（12+24+31+28）/4=23.75约为24个按均衡