飞轮电池生产计划的制定1

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1、飞轮电池生产计划的制定1.市场需求预测-----------------------------22.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析---------------53.生产方式的经济分析和比较-----------------54.制定综合生产计划-------------------------75.生产能力的粗平衡-------------------------76.制定主生产计划---------------------------87.制定MRP,CRP------------------------------88.生产能力的精平衡-----

2、--------------------219.零件工序卡编制---------------------------2110.产品装配工序卡编制-----------------------23231.市场需求预测（Marketforecast）实验数据Month1Month2Month3Month4Year19182421Year210202723Year311222926year1，Q19year1，Q218year1，Q324year1，Q421year2，Q110year2，Q220year2，Q327year2，Q423year3，Q111

3、year3，Q222year3，Q329year3，Q426由折线图分析可知：飞轮电池的需求量具有明显的季节性变化，而不同年份相同月份的需求量呈明显的线性关系方案一：SeasonalizedTimeSeiriesRegression的模型来进行市场预测。预测过程及结果如下：***SEASONALIZEDTIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***23-------------------------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:张超---------

4、----------------------------------------------------------FORECASTSales--------------------------ABSOLUTEYEARSEASONACTUALREGRESSIONSEASONALIZEDERROR119.00017.5338.7660.2341218.00017.98217.9820.0181324.00018.43024.5730.5731421.00018.87922.0251.0252110.00019.3279.6640.3362220.000

5、19.77619.7760.2242327.00020.22426.9660.0342423.00020.67324.1181.1183111.00021.12110.5610.4393222.00021.57021.5700.4303329.00022.01829.3580.3583426.00022.46726.2120.212-------------------------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)YEARSEASONFORECA

6、STLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND4111.45810.91012.0064223.36422.26824.4604331.75030.28933.2124428.30527.02629.584REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=17.0844b=0.4486FORECAST=Y*SEASONALINDEX(i)R=0.942R-SQUARE=0.8872MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=0.333MEANSQUARE

7、DERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.283MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.131STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.605SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.500SEASONALINDEX(2)=1.000SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.333SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.167方案二：TIMESERIESREGRESSION模型进行预测23预测过程及结果如下：***TIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-----

8、------------------------------------------------PROBLE