UNCTAD-2019年全球投资趋势监测报告（英文）-2020..pdf

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1、JANUARY2020ISSUE33GLOBALFDIFLOWSFLATIN2019MODERATEINCREASEEXPECTEDIN2020EMBARGO20JANUARY2020,13:00GMT(8:00NewYork,14:00Geneva)HIGHLIGHTS•Globalforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)remainedflatin2019,at$1.39trillion,a1%declinefromarevised$1.41trillionin2018.Thisisagainstthebackdropofweakermac

2、roeconomicperformanceandpolicyuncertaintyforinvestors,includingtradetensions.•TheunderlyingFDItrend,whichremovesthevolatilitycausedbyone-offtransactionsandintra-firmfinancialflows,wasup5%(inlinewithprojectionsintheWorldInvestmentReport2019)–amarginalchangerepresentingacontinuationof

3、thestagnationobservedoverthedecade.•FDIflowstodevelopedcountriesremainedatahistoricallylowlevel,decreasingbyafurther6%toanestimated$643billion.FDItotheEuropeanUnion(EU)fellby15%to$305billion,whileflowstotheUnitedStatesremainedstableat$251billion.Figure1.FDIinflows:globalandbygroupof

4、economies,2008–2019*(BillionsofUSdollars)Source:UNCTAD.*Preliminaryestimates.UNCTAD’sFDIdataexcludespecialpurposeentitiesandoffshorefinancialcentres(so-called“PhantomFDI”)ThisreportcanbefreelycitedprovidedappropriateacknowledgementisgiventoUNCTAD.Thispublicationhasnotbeenformallyedi

5、ted.ITMJANUARY2020ISSUE33•Flowstodevelopingeconomiesremainedunchangedatanestimated$695billion.FDIincreasedby16%inLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanand3%inAfrica.Despiteadeclineof6%,flowstodevelopingAsiacontinuedtoaccountforone-thirdofglobalFDIin2019.Flowstotransitioneconomiesrosebytwothird

6、sto$57billion.•Trendsinselectedeconomies:°FDIintheUnitedKingdomdown6%asBrexitunfolds.°HongKong,Chinadivestmentscausea48%FDIdeclineamongturbulence.°Singaporeup42%inabuoyantASEANregion.°Zero-growthofflowstoboththeUnitedStatesandChina.°Brazilup26%atthestartofaprivatizationprogramme.°Ge

7、rmaninflowstripleasMNEsextendloanstoforeignaffiliatesinayearofslowgrowth.•Lookingahead,UNCTADexpectsFDIflowstorisemarginallyin2020onthebackoffurthermodestgrowthoftheworldeconomy.Corporateprofitsareexpectedtoremainhighandsignsofwaningtradetensionsemerge.However,thedecreaseofannounced

8、greenfieldprojectsb