欧洲奢侈品：冠状病毒的因素.docx

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1、DeutscheBankResearchEuropeConsumerDiscretionary&LuxuryLuxuryGoodsIndustryLuxuryGoodsDate25February2020IndustryUpdateFactoringintheCoronavirusUnwindingcomplacencymaycreateentrypointsovertimeThemarketis(finally)wakinguptothecoronavirus,withsharepricesnowfactoringinmoreseri

2、ousconcernsthatthecoronavirusoutbreakcouldpotentiallyturnintoaglobalpandemic.OurDBluxuryuniversehasdeclinedby-11.1%(shareprice),drivenbyaPEde-ratingof10.5%.Theimpacthasbeengreatestforturnaroundstoriesgiventherelativelyhighfixedcostbase.Webelievethatshorttermpressurewillcon

3、tinue.Neverthelesstheunderlyingfundamentalluxuryequitystoryremainsintact,andcorrectionscouldcreategoodentryopportunitiesfurtherdowntheroad.Wearenotmakinganychangestoourrecommendationsatthisstage.WefactorintheimpactofCoronavirusonourluxuryuniverse:wenowassumethatluxurydeman

4、dwillgrowby0.5%vs5%earlierin2020,andcutourFY20and21EPSbyanaverageof16%and12%respectively,andtargetpricesbyanaverageof3%(seeFigures1-6fordetails).Thereismoredownsideifwedon'tseearecoveryinH2,butconverselyastrongerthanexpectedreboundin2Hcouldoffset1Hweakness(Figures30and31).

5、TherealityisthatQ1shouldbebleak...FrancescaDiPasquantonioResearchAnalyst+44-20-754-56490JainaMistry,CFAResearchAnalyst+44-20-754-71337KeyChangesCompanyTargetPriceRating1913.HK32.00to28.50-BCU.MI29.50to29.00-BOSSn.DE49.00to48.00-BRBY.L2,010.00to1,990.00-CFR.S90.00to88.00-5

6、40.00toHRMS.PA-530.00580.00toWepublishedoursensitivityanalysistwoweeksago(LuxuryGoods:MonitoringPRTP.PA-550.00theCoronavirus),andgiventheincrementallynegativenewsflowonthesituationinChinaandglobally,wenowfactorinCoronavirusinourestimates.WeexpectluxurydemandinQ1toseeasig

7、nificanthitwithasalesdeclineof-16%intheSFER.MI20.50to19.50-TOD.MI42.00to40.00-300.00toquarter.Thisisdrivenby-48%forthedomesticChineseconsumer,-36%fortheChinesespendingabroad,andanincreasinglynegativeimpactonnon-Chineseconsumers.Thisshouldhaveasignificantimpacton1Qprofitab

8、ility(notdisclosed)and1Hprofitability(disclosed,expect–275bps)...andQ2iskeyforforecastsKe