德银-欧洲-奢侈品行业-欧洲奢侈品：冠状病毒的因素-2020.2.25.pdf

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1、DeutscheBankResearchEuropeIndustryDate25February2020ConsumerDiscretionary&LuxuryGoodsLuxuryIndustryUpdateLuxuryGoodsFactoringintheCoronavirusFrancescaDiPasquantonioUnwindingcomplacencymaycreateentrypointsovertimeResearchAnalystThemarketis(finally)wakinguptothecoronavirus,withshar

2、epricesnowfactoring+44-20-754-56490inmoreseriousconcernsthatthecoronavirusoutbreakcouldpotentiallyturnintoJainaMistry,CFAaglobalpandemic.OurDBluxuryuniversehasdeclinedby-11.1%(shareprice),ResearchAnalystdrivenbyaPEde-ratingof10.5%.Theimpacthasbeengreatestforturnaround+44-20-754-7

3、1337storiesgiventherelativelyhighfixedcostbase.Webelievethatshorttermpressurewillcontinue.NeverthelesstheunderlyingfundamentalluxuryequitystoryremainsKeyChangesintact,andcorrectionscouldcreategoodentryopportunitiesfurtherdowntheCompanyTargetPriceRatingroad.Wearenotmakinganychange

4、stoourrecommendationsatthisstage.We1913.HK32.00to28.50-factorintheimpactofCoronavirusonourluxuryuniverse:wenowassumethatBCU.MI29.50to29.00-luxurydemandwillgrowby0.5%vs5%earlierin2020,andcutourFY20and21EPSBOSSn.DE49.00to48.00-byanaverageof16%and12%respectively,andtargetpricesbyana

5、verageof3%2,010.00to(seeFigures1-6fordetails).Thereismoredownsideifwedon'tseearecoveryinH2,BRBY.L-1,990.00butconverselyastrongerthanexpectedreboundin2Hcouldoffset1HweaknessCFR.S90.00to88.00-(Figures30and31).540.00toHRMS.PA-530.00TherealityisthatQ1shouldbebleak...580.00toWepublish

6、edoursensitivityanalysistwoweeksago(LuxuryGoods:MonitoringPRTP.PA-550.00theCoronavirus),andgiventheincrementallynegativenewsflowonthesituationSFER.MI20.50to19.50-inChinaandglobally,wenowfactorinCoronavirusinourestimates.WeexpectTOD.MI42.00to40.00-luxurydemandinQ1toseeasignificant

7、hitwithasalesdeclineof-16%inthe300.00toquarter.Thisisdrivenby-48%forthedomesticChineseconsumer,-36%fortheUHR.S-278.00Chinesespendingabroad,andanincreasinglynegativeimpactonnon-ChineseSource:DeutscheBankconsumers.Thisshouldhaveasignificantimpacton1Qprofitability(notdisclosed)and1H

8、profitability(disclosed,expect–275bps)..