重新审视亚马逊生态系统 -美股

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1、Amazon.comBuy(US$1,200.00pricetarget)UBSResearchTHESISMAPaguidetoourthinkingandwhat'swhereinthisreportPIVOTALQUESTIONSQ:CanAmazoncontinuetodrivetoplinemomentumwhilecontrollingcosts?Yes.WebelievethatstrongPrimemembergrowth,andfastsellerFBAadoptionwillcontinuetoadvanceAmazon'sPrime+FBAflywheeleffe

2、ctthatislikelytobesupportiveofahighteensrevgrowthCAGR('16-'21).Further,Amazonwilllikelyfocusoninsourcing&controllingmoreofitsownlogistics(shiftingmoretofixedcostsfromvariablecosts)for1Pgoods&its3Pmerchantpartners."KeyTakeawaysfromExpertPanelDiscussiononAmazon'sAmbitionsinLogistics"3/7/2016Q:Can

3、AWSsustainhighrevenuegrowthalongwithmaintainingexpandingmargins?Yes.AWShas(andwillmaintain,inourview)thedominantpositionintheInfrastructure-as-a-Service(IaaS)marketandincreasinglywithinPlatform-as-a-Service(PaaS)&otherITspendingpools.OurestimatesassumeAWSrevenuewillgrowat~27%CAGR(2016-2021E)."Co

4、mpletingTheCheckout;UpgradeToBuy"7/14/2015Q:HasAmazonbegunan"investmentcycle"thatwillputforwardCSOImarginsatrisk?WebelieveAmazonwillcontinueinvestinginmultiplegrowthopportunities(licensed&originalcontent,logistics,India,hardware,etc.).However,weexpectgrossprofitdollargrowth(drivenby3P&AWSmixshi

5、ft)willallowforlong-terminvestments&CSOImarginexpansion."FlywheelsNeedInvestmentstoSpin"10/28/2016UBSVIEWAsAmazoncontinuestoinvestinitsmultiplegrowthopportunities,webelievethecompanycandeliverahighteensrevenueCAGRoverthemediumtermalongwithmoderatemarginexpansion.Weexpectinvestments,toplinegrowt

6、h&thebenefitsofscaletocreateahealthybalanceoverthelongterm(despiteQ-to-Qvolatility).Additionally,theimpliedvaluationoftheeCommercebusinessappearsattractivewhenAMZNsharesareviewedex-AWS.EVIDENCEWeexpectAmazontobenefitfromitsPrime+FBAflywheel–'16Primemembership(~2xspendvs.non-Primesubs)growth+38%Y

7、oY&FBAat~55%+of3Punits(upfrom~40%inQ4'14).Further,AWShasdemonstratedstrongrevenuemomentum(+55%YoYin2016despiteasizeablebase)andmarginexpansion.WHAT'SPRICEDIN?Fearofaninvestmentcycle,increasinglypossiblemacroheadwinds&competi