瑞信-100张图看懂原油市场

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1、TheFlowingOilChartbookJuly6,2017RESEARCHANALYSTSJanStuartEdwardWestlakeResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst212-325-1013212-325-6751jan.stuart@credit-suisse.comedward.westlake@credit-suisse.comJohannesVanDerTuinJonathanAronsonAbrahamKahnResearchAnalystResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst212-325-4556212-

2、325-1014212-325-3210johannes.vandertuin@credit-suisse.comjonathan.aronson@credit-suisse.comabraham.kahn@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesa

3、ndseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.TableofContentsTheBigPictureTheInter

4、nationalSceneOilMacroUSGulfCoast(USGC)PermianMid–ContinentWestCoastEastCoastTechnicalsNGLsOtherIncludingVMT,RackMargins,&Fixtures2Headlines–What’sMoving…MoreSellersthanBuyersWTItests$44/bafterclosingabove$47/bonJuly3,sellingthrougha13+mbsdrawonUScommercialinventoriesOnedatapointdoesnotmake

5、atrend,andonedatapointdoesnotturnaroundthebearishfreighttrain.Nonetheless,weareencouragedtoseeanearly~2Mb/ddrawintheDoEweeklies.OpectomeetinSt.PetersburgJuly24toreviewcompliancewithproductioncutsRussianofficialshavesaidtheyopposedeeperproductioncutsatthetalks(Bloomberg)andRussianenergymini

6、sterAlexanderNovaktoldReutersthatoilinventorieswillhavefallensubstantiallybyQ12018(Bloomberg).ButwithmarketsseeminglyconvincedthatoilinventorieswillnothavefallensubstantiallybyQ12018,itwillbeimportanttomonitorhowthelanguageevolvesmovingforward.BloombergreportsthatNigeriaisinvitedtothemeetin

7、gandtheWallStreetJournalreportsthatOpecisconsideringproductioncapsforLibyaandNigeria.Productioncapsmaytiltriskperceptionsaroundthetwocountries,butwon’tdomuchtofurthertightenglobaloilmarkets,asacapisnotacut,andacutseems,onthefaceofit,verydifficulttonegoti