黑岩-2017下半年全球投资展望-mid－year_2017

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1、GlobalInvestmentOutlookMIDYEAR2017BII0717U/E-222127-660402FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,ANDQUALIFIEDINVESTORS/CLIENTS.FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINUS.Theglobalexpansionischuggingalong,withanimprovedeurozoneoutlookinparticular;deflationfearsandnear-termpoliticalriskslooktohavefaded;andfinancialmarketvola

2、tilityissubdued.Webelievethisprovidesfertilegroundformodestgainsinriskassetssuchasequities.Ourkeyviews:•Outlookdebate:a mid-Junegatheringofsome90BlackRockportfoliomanagersandexecutivesfeaturedvigorousdebatesonthe driversoflowvolatility,howtothinkaboutvaluationsandthe outlookformonetarypolicyandmar

3、kets.Wedissectedkeyriskssuchasa snapbackingovernmentbondyields,discussedhowpoorRichardTurnilltradingliquiditycouldaggravateanysell-offsinfrothypocketsofcreditmarkets,andconcludedthatworriesGlobalChiefovera Chinaslowdownareoverstatedinthe nearterm.InvestmentStrategistBlackRockInvestment•Themes:wese

4、ethe worldina synchronisedandsustainedeconomicexpansionthatisslowerthanpreviousInstitutecycles.Webelievestructurallylowergrowthandinterestratesmeanthatcomparingvaluationmetricstopastlevelsmaynotbea goodguidetothe future.Weseelowvolatilityasa normalfeatureofthe benigneconomicandfinancialbackdrop–an

5、dnotasa warningsigninitself.Takentogether,thiscouldmeanequitiesareSETTINGTHE SCENE.......3cheaperthantheylook–andinvestorsmayrunthe riskofbeingunder-risked.•Marketviews:wepreferequitiesoverfixedincome,andcreditovergovernmentbonds.InequitieswegenerallyTHEMES............................4preferEurope

6、an,Japaneseandemergingmarket(EM)stocksovertheirmoreexpensiveUScounterparts.SustainedexpansionWe seeroomforthe momentumstylefactorandthe technologysectortooutperformfurther,albeitwithRethinkingriskpotentialforswiftreversals.Wealsolikethe valuestylefactorandselectedfinancials.Infixedincome,welikeRet

7、hinkingreturnshigher-qualitycreditandgenerallypreferinflation-linkedbondsovernominalones.WealsoseeopportunitiesinselectedEMdebt.OUTLOOKFORUM..........7TermpremiumrevivalECBandChinarisksDebatingEuropePoliticsnotqu