美林关于投资时钟理论的经典分析报告

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1、GlobalEquityStrategyInvestmentStrategyEquityStrategy

2、Global29April2010TheInvestmentClockMichaelHartnett+16468551508ChiefGlobalEquityStrategistMLPF&S¢Globalgrowthandinflationontherisemichael.hartnett@baml.comOurinvestmentclocksayswearecurrentlyinthe“inflationary”phaseoftheMichaelPenn+1646855306

3、4GlobalEquityStrategistinvestmentcycle.Historicallythisphasefavorscommodities,Canada,Russia,MLPF&SBrazil,energyandindustrials.Itislessfavorableforbonds,cashandcommoditymichael.penn@baml.comimporterssuchasChina.TheinvestmentclockisapurelymacromethodologyTableofContentsTheinvestmentclockestablis

4、hestherelationshipbetweenthebusinesscycle,Investmentclockobjective2measuredusinggrowthandinflationvariables,andtheperformanceofassetThecurrentstageofthecycle2classes,equitymarketsandsectors.TheinvestmentdriversofvaluationandConceptofthebusinesscycle3positioningareignored.Historyofthebusinesscy

5、cle4Backtestingtheinvestmentclock6TheclocksupportsouroverweightofriskassetsWhat’sthetime?11Thenextstageofthecycle12Sincespring’09theclockhasbeenin“reflation”and“inflation”phases,Appendix113supportingouroverweightofriskassets.WebelieveglobalgrowthwillremainAppendix214robustandwhileinflationisup

6、,weforecastitwillremainlowenoughtopreventasignificantglobalmonetarytighteningcycleanytimesoon.Chart2:ThecurrenttimeNextstagelikelytofavordefensivemarkets1.5ReflationaryInflationaryThenextstageofthecycleshouldbeagrowthslowdownand“stagflation”,which08/09favorsmoredefensivemarkets.Datathatcouldsi

7、gnalthisphase:ISMneworders1.011/0902/10below50;OECDleadindicatorsub-5%growth;initialjoblessclaimsabove500K.0.505/09Butfornowweremaincyclicalbullsofriskassetsasoureconomistsdonotsee0.0Europe’sdebtcrisisandChinesetighteningasbiggrowth-threateningevents.-0.502/0908/08Chart1:TheInvestmentClockGrow

8、thdiffusionindex-1.0-1.5DeflationaryStagflationaryReflationaryInflationrisesInflationary-1.5-0.50.51.5Growth↑EquitiesCommoditiesGrowth↑InflationdiffusionindexInflation↓TechEnergyInflation↑Source:BofAMerrillLynchGlobalEquityStrategyIndus