高盛-20172q－全球股市和固收市场展望-17页

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1、FundamentalEquity2ndQuarter2017GlobalEquityOutlookCheckingtheTransmissionLastquarter,wesharedourviewthatthechangeintheUSadministrationcouldleadtopro-growthpolicieswithsignificantimplicationsforequityinvestors(1Q2017GlobalEquityOutlook:FromLowGrowthtoPro-Growth).Sinc

2、ethen,optimismontheeconomyhasindeedsoared,butwebelieveitneedstobeconvertedintoconfidencetoignitecorporate“animalspirits”.Inthisquarterlyoutlook,weexploretransmissionmechanisms,potentialheadwinds,andmilepoststhatmayindicatethistransitionisunderway.Wemaintainapositive

3、outlookforequitiesbasedonearningsgrowth.Globalgrowthandearningsforecastsaretrendingupwardinallmajorregionsforthefirsttimesince2010.USequitieshavereachedall-timehighsandvaluationsareexpensiveinmanyregionsglobally,reflectinginvestorandbusinessoptimismaboutthepotential

4、forpro-growthpoliciesthatcouldsupportfurthereconomicandearningsgrowth(p.2).Optimismnowneedstoconverttoconfidenceinordertoturnsentimentintoaction,generatingrealbusinessactivityandmaintaininginvestorenthusiasm.Wethinkderegulationandtaxreformarecriticalcomponentsofthis

5、transition.Regulatoryreformiseasiertoenactbecauseitcanlargelybeaccomplishedwithexecutiveorders.Taxreformmaybemorechallenging,butwethinkitisthekeytorevivingconfidence(p.3).Politicaluncertaintyremainsarisktothistransitionprocess.IntheUS,wethinkthefailuretopasshealthca

6、rereform(todate)hasincreasedtherisksaroundtheadministration’sabilitytoexecuteonotherelementsofitspro-growthagenda.Europeanpoliticalriskremainselevated,butmayactuallybereceding,giventheresultsofrecentelectionsintheNetherlandsandFrance.PollsinFranceindicatethatEmmanue

7、lMacronislikelytodefeatthenationalistcandidateMarineLePeninthesecondroundelectiononMay7(p.4).Signswewillbewatchingtogaugewhethertheconversiontoconfidenceissuccessfulincluderisingcorporateinvestmentandearningsgrowthmeetingorexceedingforecasts.Webelieveitisimportantto

8、seefundamentalscatchuptoexpectations,particularlygiventoday’sfullequityvaluations(p.5).Wemaintainmostofourregionalandsectorviewsfromlastqu