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1、18March2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、AustraliaCommoditiesNotesGlobaldemanddestructionforcopperandaluminiumfromCOVID-19DiversifiedMetals&Mining
3、SectorReview■WeestimatetheglobaldemanddestructionforcopperandaluminiumfromResearchAnalystsCOVID-19usingtheGlob
4、alFinancialCrisisof2008-09asananalogue.ThepotentialeconomicdestructionandreductioninconsumerspendingisstartingtolookequallysevereMatthewHopeasthepandemicspreadsandcountrieslockdown.Weapplyasimilarlevelofdemand61282054669matthew.hope@credit-suisse.comred
5、uctionastheGFCtomajorregions,whiletakingaccountofdifferencessincethen.Wemodelahighimpactandlowimpactcasewithdifferentdurationsfortheepidemic(4months&therestof2020)andbaseourestimatesonthemid-rangebetweenthetwo.■Weexpectthepandemictoimpactmetaldemandviat
6、hesuspensionofmajorpurchaseplansbyconsumers.Autos,appliancesandhousingshouldbetheimmediatecasualties,butothersectors:infrastructure,machineryandelectricalarelikelytobeimpactedascompaniesreduceinvestmentandgovernments’redirectspendingtowardswelfareandbus
7、inesssupport.EverybusinessthatrequirespeopletocongregatelooksunviableunderaregimeofSocialDistancingandGovernment-mandatedisolation.Serviceandtransportindustriesarebadlyimpacted.Whiletherearefinancialissuesarising,majorbusinessesarelikelytoabsorbtheimpac
8、t,recapitaliseifnecessaryandsurvive.SMEsmaynot,andtheresultinglostincomes,jobsandbusinessearningswillimpactspending.■Usingourmid-rangescenario,weexpectcopperdemandwillcontract6.8%in2020or1.8Mt,andaluminiumwillfall6.5%or5.2Mt.Wepreviouslyviewedthecopperm
9、arketasadequatelysuppliedin2020withasurplusof300kt,andaluminiumasover-supplied,sothedemanddestructionimpliescatastrophicmetalsurpluses.Copperminesupplymayalsofall,butweexpectthatmayequatetoonlyathirdofthedemandloss.Figure1:Estimatedchangeinmetaldemandin
10、2020andpriceexpectations20202020MidcasePrev.Demanddemanddemandreduction1Q202Q203Q204Q202020202120222023YoYYoYMtUS$/lbUS$/lbUS$/lbUS$/lbUS$/lbUS$/lbUS$/lbUS$/lbCopper-6.8%0.9%1.82.602.202.052.302,292.332.152.45Chg-4%-18%-24%-15%-1
