惠誉七月全球经济展望（英文）

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1、GlobalEconomicOutlook–June2017WorldEconomyGainsMomentumStrongestWorldGrowthSince2010•GlobalrecoverystrengtheningTherecoveryinglobalgrowthisstrengthening.WorldGDPgrowth(usingFitch’sproxybasedon20majoradvancedandemerging-market(EM)countries–the‘Fitch20’)isexpectedtop

2、ickupto2.9%thisyearfrom•Fallingunemploymenthelpingconfidence2.5%in2016.AndfollowingupwardrevisionstoeurozoneandChinagrowthforecastssincetheMarch2017GlobalEconomicOutlook(GEO),worldgrowthisnowexpectedtoreach3.1%in2018.Thiswouldbethe•Fiscalsupporttonear-termgrowthhig

3、hestrateseensince2010–whentherewasasharpbouncebackaftertheglobalfinancialcrisis–andwellabovethepost-1990averageannualglobalgrowthrateof2.5%.•EMdemandhasrebounded,boostingFastergrowthin2017reflectsasynchronisedimprovementacrossbothadvancedandEMeconomies.Macropolicie

4、sandtighteninglabourworldtrademarketsaresupportingdemandgrowthinadvancedcountries,whiletheturnaroundinChina’shousingmarketsince2015andtherecoveryin•ButcredittighteningwillslowChinacommoditypricesfromearly2016havefuelledareboundinEMdemand.Tradelinkageshavealsobeenim

5、portant,withanotableaccelerationgrowthfrom2H17inEMimportdemandsincemid-2016boostingglobalexports.Better-than-expectedexportperformancehasrecentlybeenacommonthemeacrosstheFitch20countries,helpingdeliverimprovementsinglobal•FedQEunwindtostartwithinmonthsmanufacturing

6、outputandreflectedinrobustmanufacturingPurchasingManagers’Indices(PMI)surveybalances.GlobalGDPGrowthandContributionsEmergingMarketsAdvancedWorld(%yoy,pps)3.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.02011201220132014201520162017f2018f2019fSource:Fitch1EconomicsGlobalForecastSummaryAnnua

7、lAverage(%)2012-201620162017f2018f2019fGDPGrowthUS2.11.62.12.62.2Eurozone0.81.82.01.81.4China7.36.76.55.95.8Japan1.21.01.21.10.7UK2.11.81.51.31.7Developeda1.61.61.82.01.8Emergingb4.74.34.94.94.9Worldc2.62.52.93.13.0Inflation(endofperiod)US1.32.12.42.52.2Eurozone0.9

8、1.11.61.51.8China2.12.12.02.22.2Japan0.70.30.81.11.2UK1.51.62.82.42.3InterestRates(endofperiod)US0.310.751.502.503.25Eurozone0.340.000.000.000.50