房地产行业回顾19展望20.pdf

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1、世联研究致虚守静复归其根中国房地产市场2019年回顾与2020年展望2019年，房地产在踟蹰前行中，销售额再度创出新高。2020年，在“房住不炒”与“三稳”之下，房地产行业终将褪去浮躁与虚火，回归其根本。2020.02深圳世联行集团股份有限公司(1)全年商品房销售额16万亿，增速降至6.5%............................................................................................4(2)量稳价增拉动销售额增长，商业办公呈现结构性恶化...............................

2、........................................5(3)一二线热度回升，三四线转冷明显............................................................................................................6(1)情绪跌宕起伏，成交量跌价升................................................................................................................

3、...10(2)核心城市楼面价总体趋稳，长三角与大湾区最受青睐.....................................................................14(1)到位资金缓增，回款占比提升...................................................................................................................16(2)货币宽松不改融资收紧，发债规模年内逐季回落.....................................

4、.........................................17(3)融资成本震荡下行，融资能力分化明显.................................................................................................19(4)地产信托余额管控，前端拿地已受影响.................................................................................................20(1)“金九银十”成色不足，市

5、场情绪回归理性..............................................................................................22(2)购房成本先降后升，房价涨幅明显回落.................................................................................................24(3)居民杠杆率快速上行，投机性购房将受抑制....................................................

6、....................................25(1)全球经济萎靡，宽松力度加大...................................................................................................................29(2)三驾马车显疲态，货币宽松亦有限..........................................................................................................3

7、1(3)政府部门加杠杆，地产政策更友好..........................................................................................................33(4)“新冠”疫情冲击明显，楼市需求不必过度悲观.........................................................................