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1、1FEBRUARY2012What’sinstoreforChinain2012?Despitefoodpriceinflationandastagnanthousingmarket,Chinashouldmaintainarapidrateofgrowth.GordonOrr2GordonOrr,adirectorinMcKinsey’sShanghaioffice,offersaforecastforgrowthinChinathisyear.Readhistenpredictions,thenletusknowwhatyouthink.1.Gover
2、nmentpolicieswillspurconsumptionandinvestment.Thesemoveswillcompensatefordecliningexportsandaslumpinghousingmarket.Toboostconsumption,policymakerscouldpullanumberofshort-termlevers,includingtaxbreaksandrebates,andarelikelytoraisetheminimumwagefurther.The12thfive-yearplancallsforra
3、isinghouseholddisposableincomeby7percentayear;thusthegovernmentmayurgelargestate-ownedenterprisestoincreasewagesacrosstheboard,whichwouldpressureothercompaniestofollowsuit.Policymakersarealsolikelytoextendapopularprogramofferingrebatesonpurchasesofelectronicsandappliances.(Itfuele
4、dthesaleof200millionunits,generating450billionrenminbi—about$71billion—inrevenuesfrom2009to2011.)Inaddition,thegovernmentwillinvestheavilyinmanufacturing,particularlyinthecentralandwesternregions,offeringincentivestoattractindustrialcompaniesinland.Themanufacturingsectorwillcontin
5、uetofuelChina’sgrowth,thanksinparttothelowercostoflaborandtheimprovinginfrastructureinthecountry’sinterior.2.Dominantmodelswillemergeforreformingrurallandownership.Chinamustconsolidateitsfarmstoincreaseagriculturaloutputandreducetheincomegapbetweenruralandurbanpopulations.Landrefo
6、rmcouldhelpitachievetheseandotherobjectives,andregionsacrossthecountryaretestingdifferentpilotstoidentifythebestapproaches.OneinthecityofChongqing,forexample,helpsfarmersmovetocitiesandthusgainaccesstoeducation,healthcare,andpensions,whichmaybeunavailableinruralareas.Participantsh
7、avetheoptionofkeepingorgivinguptheirlanduserightsintheprocess.ApilotinChengdu,aimingtobringjobsanddevelopmenttothecountryside,givesruralpopulationsrightstypicalofthoseurbanresidentsenjoy.Thanksinparttothisinitiative,morethan90percentofChengdu’sruralresidentsnowhavemedicalinsurance
8、.3.Realestatewillstagnate.Inaneff
