麦肯锡估值教学.pdf

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1、ATutorialontheMcKinseyModelforValuationofCompaniesL.PeterJennergren∗Fourthrevision,August26,2002SSE/EFIWorkingPaperSeriesinBusinessAdministrationNo.1998:1AbstractAllstepsoftheMcKinseymodelareoutlined.Essentialstepsare:calculationoffreecashflow,forecastingoffutureaccountingdata(profitandlossaccountsa

2、ndbalancesheets),anddiscountingoffreecashflow.ThereisparticularemphasisonforecastingthosebalancesheetitemswhichrelatetoProperty,Plant,andEquip-ment.Thereisanexemplifyingvaluationincluded(ofacompanycalledMcKay),asanillustration.Keywords:Valuation,freecashflow,discounting,accountingdataJELclassificatio

3、n:G31,M41,C60∗StockholmSchoolofEconomics,Box6501,S-11383Stockholm,Sweden.TheauthorisindebtedtoJoakimLevin,PerOlsson,andKenthSkogsvikfordiscussionsandcomments.11IntroductionThistutorialexplainsallthestepsoftheMcKinseyvaluationmodel,alsoreferredtoasthediscountedcashflowmodelanddescribedinTomCopeland,

4、TimKoller,andJackMurrin:Valuation:MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompanies(Wiley,NewYork;1sted.1990,2nded.1994,3rded.2000).Thepurposeistoenablethereadertosetupacompletevaluationmodelofhis/herown,atleastforacompanywithasimplestructure(e.g.,acompanythatdoesnotconsistofseveralbusinessunitsandisnotinvo

5、lvedinextensiveforeignoperations).Thediscussionproceedsbymeansofanextendedvaluationexample.ThecompanythatissubjecttothevaluationexerciseistheMcKaycompany.TheMcKayexampleinthistutorialissomewhatsimilartothePrestonexample(con-cerningatruckingcompany)inCopelandetal.1990,Copelandetal.1994.However,cert

6、ainsimplificationshavebeenmade,foreasierunderstandingofthemodel.Inpar-ticular,thecapitalstructureofMcKayiscomposedonlyofequityanddebt(i.e.,noconvertiblebonds,etc.).ThepurposeoftheMcKayexampleismerelytopresentallessentialaspectsoftheMcKinseymodelassimplyaspossible.Someofthehistoricalincomestatementa

7、ndbalancesheetdatahavebeentakenfromthePrestonexample.However,theforecastedincomestatementsandbalancesheetsaretotallydifferentfromPreston’s.Allmonetaryunitsareunspecifiedinthistutorial(inthePrestonexampleinCopelande