j.p.摩根-新兴市场图解-2017.6-29页

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1、Completed01Jun201707:15PMHKTDisseminated01Jun201707:16PMHKTEmergingMarketsEquityResearch1June2017EmergingMarketsStrategyDashboardsEmergingMarketsEquityStrategyTeamRecommendationsAdrianMowatACEmergingMarketsadrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com(852)2800-8599J.P.Morga

2、nSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedOW:China,andChilePedroMartinsJunior,CFALatAmpedro.x.martins@jpmorgan.com(55-11)4950-4121BancoJ.P.MorganS.A.UW:Thailand,Mexico,andTurkey.DavidAserkoff,CFACEEMEAdavid.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com(44-20)7134-5887J.P.MorganSecuritiesp

3、lcKEYTRADESEMs’newbullmarketfueledbyEPSgrowthRajivBatraEmergingMarketsrajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com(91-22)6157-3568J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedTransitionfromreflationtotrendnominalgrowthSanayaTavariaEmergingMarketssanaya.x.tavaria@jpmorgan.com(1-212)622-54

4、69J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCiPhonesnotironoreSunnyChabriyaEmergingMarketssunny.chabriya@jpmorgan.com(91-22)61573368J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedASEANlift:focusonIndonesiaandPhilippinesfinancial&NeelotpalSahuEmergingMarketsneelotpal.sahu@jpmorgan.com(91-22)6

5、157-3370J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedconsumerGlobalEmergingMarketsResearchRidingtheinsurancerateswaveChina’sfallingriskpremiumLuisOganesGlobalEmergingMarketsluis.oganes@jpmorgan.com(44-20)7134-0111J.P.MorganSecuritiesplcChile:PolicyChangeiscomingForfulll

6、istofJ.P.MorganequitystrategistspleaseseethedirectoryonthebackpageKeyChangesMarketperformanceto31May2017Headlineinflationdatapublishedsincethelastpublication:TableofContentsPage#•Yeartodate:MSCIEmergingMarkets16.6%outperformingMSCIWorldRegionalSummary2by

7、6.6%•Korea:CPI2.0%oya(J.P.Morgan:2.1%Consensus:2.0%)MarketPerformance3•Yeartodate:MSCIEMAsia20.7%outperformingMSCIEmerging•Thailand:CPI-0.04%oya(J.P.Morgan:0.2%Consensus:0.2%)LiquidityMonitor4Marketsby4.1%•Poland:CPI1.9%oya(Consensus:2.0%)Indextargets5•T

8、opthreemarketsYTDinUS$:Poland,KoreaandTurkeyMonitoringInflation6•BottomthreemarketsYTDinUS$:Qatar,UAEandBrazilMarketDrivers7J.P.Morganrevisionsto2017GDPforecastsCross-sectionEarningsGrowth8•Positive:EMEAEM:2.4%[2.3%];Russi