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时间:2020-03-23
《基于信息扩散和频率曲线适线的农业旱灾风险评估方法.pdf》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、水利水电技术第45卷2014年第7期基于信息扩散和频率曲线适线的农业旱灾风险评估方法闫超君1,欧阳蔚2一,金菊良2一,周玉良2一,郦建强4,刘兰芳5(I.安徽水利水电职业技术学院,安徽合肥231603;2.合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009;3.合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所,安徽合肥230009;4.水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100011;5.衡阳师范学院资源环境与旅游管理系,湖南衡阳421008)摘要:为克服农业旱灾风险计算中小样本导致的信息不足,以农业因旱受灾率为损失指标,采用信息扩散
2、理论和频率曲线适线方法相结合的方法,构建损失与概率之间的函数关系,建立了旱灾风险评估方法。据此方法定量计算不同旱灾水平年下的农业因旱受灾率,绘制旱灾风险空间分布图。该方法通过优化利用样本模糊信息来弥补小样本导致的信息不足,对小容量样本的概率分布估计有较高的精确度。将该方法用于安徽省农业旱灾风险评估,绘制了安徽省农业旱灾风险图,以便为安徽省抗旱减灾提供参考。关键词:农业旱灾;风险评估;信息扩散;频率曲线适线;旱灾风险图;安徽省中图分类号:$42文献标识码:B文章编号:1000-0860(2014)07-0107—06Risk
3、assessmentmethodofagriculturaldroughtdisasterbasedoninformationdiffusionandfrequencycurvefittingYANChaojunl,OUYANGWei2一,JINJulian92一,ZHOUYulian92一,LIJianqian94,LIULanfan95(1.AnhuiTechnicalCollegeofWaterResourcesandHydroelectricPower,Hefei231603,Anhui,China;2.Schoo
4、lofCivilEngineering,HefeiUniversityofTechnology,Hefei230009,Anhui,China;3.InstituteofWaterResourcesandEnvironmentalSystemsEngineering,HefeiUniversityofTechnology,Hefei230009,Anhui,China;4.WaterResourcesandHydropowerPlanningandDesignGeneralInstitute,MWR,Beijing1000
5、11,China;5.DepartmentofResources,EnvironmentandTourismManagement,HengyangNormalUniversity,Hengyang421008,Hunan,China)Abstract:Inordertoovercometheinformationshortageduringassessingtheagriculturaldroughtriskwitllsmallsamples,amethodofriskassessmentofagriculturaldro
6、ughtdisasterisestablishedhereinthroughconstructingthefunctionalrelationshipbetweenthelossanditsprobabilitybasedontheinformationdiffusionprincipleintegratedwiththefrequencycurvefittingmeth—odbytakingthedroughtdisaster—afflictedrateofagricultureasthelossindex.Ontheb
7、asisofthismethod,thedroughtdisas-ter.afflictedratesofagricultureundervarioustargetyearsofdroughtalequantitativelycalculated,whiletherelevantspatialdis—tributionmapsofdroughtriskarealsomade.Therefore,theinformationshortagecausedbysmallsamplesisfetchedupthroughtheop
8、timizedutilizationofthefuzzyinformationofthesample,whichhasahigheraccuracyforassessingtheprobabilitydistri-butionofthesmallsizedsample.Themethodisapplie
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