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1、AbstractInrecentyears,China'sforeignexchangereservesincreasedrapidly.InChina'scurrentforeignexchangesystem,therapidgrowthofforeignexchangereserveswillinevitablybringabouttheincreaseofforeignexchangereserves.ThemonetarypolicyinChinahasformedaseriousdisturbance.Thepur
2、poseofthispaperistoinvestigatetheimpactofforeignexchangereserveonthemonetarypolicyinChina.Basedontheresearchtoabsorbtheessenceofthepredecessors,thepaperwillproceedtheresearchtothisproblemmoredeeply,andputsforwardthenewviewpointandthemethod.Inthispaper,combingthrough
3、thetheory,weanalyzethepossibleimpactonthemonetarypolicyofforeignexchangereserves,aswellasthechanneloftheeffect,andthedistinctionbetween"intermediatetarget"and"finalgoal"ofmonetarypolicy.Atlast,wemakeanempiricalanalysisontheinfluence.Intheory,inspiredbyKeynes's"dimin
4、ishingmarginalpropensitytoconsumetheory"and"Engel'slaw",thisarticleproposedtheprivatesectorandcommercialbankswith"marginalshort-termassetsheldtendtodecline"behaviorinthechoiceofassetsconjecture,andadoptsthequalitativeverificationdatatothisconjecture.Basedonthisassum
5、ption,thispaperarguesthattheincreaseofforeignexchangereservewillcausetheRMBassetsizeincreasedofcommercialbankandtheprivatesector,andthiswouldaffecttheresultoflongandshorttermassetselectionbehavioroftheprivatesectorandcommercialbanks.Inthisway,theincreaseofforeignexc
6、hangereservewillhaveapositiveimpactonmonetarymultiplier.Thelong-termdepositreserverateisrelativelylowandtheshort-termdepositreserveratioisrelativelyhigh.Theeconomicparticipateshaveadifferentallocationproportionbetweenlong-termandshort-termasset.Justinthisway,themone
7、ymultiplierisaffected.Atthesametime,currencyleakageandexcessdepositreserveratioalsohaveainfluenceonmonetarymultiplier.Intheempiricalaspect,thispaperuseVEC(vectorerrorcorrectionmodel)toresearchtheinfluenceofincreasingforeignexchangereservesonmoneymultiplierandbasemon
8、ey.Theresultisconsistentwiththetheoreticalanalysis,apositiveimpact.Inaddition,thispaperuseSVAR(structuralvectorautoregression)modeltoresea
