地方国库现金流预测与管理研究.pdf

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1、摘要AbstractTreasurycashincomeandexpensesarenotsynchronizedintimeandquantity,formingtreasurycashbalance.Inthe21stcentury,witheconomicdevelopmentandtheestablishmentofthemoderntreasurymanagementsystemwithacentralizedtreasurypaymentsystem,thecashbalanceofthestatetreasuryincreased.Howtoim

2、provetheuseoftreasuryprecipitationandincreasethevalueofmoneybecomessignificant.InJune2006,theMinistryofFinanceandthePeople'sBankofChinaissuedthe"InterimMeasuresforthecentraltreasurycashmanagement",whichmarksthebeginningthecentrallevel’streasurycashmanagement.July15,2013MinistryofFin

3、anceissued"thestrengtheningofthelocalbudgetexecutionmanagementandactivatingfinancialstockfunds,"indicatingthattreasurycashmanagementofthelocalgovernmentlevelwillbecarriedoutgradually.Withalllevelsofgovernmentcarryingoutthetreasurycashmanagement,howtoeffectivelybeginthetreasurycashma

4、nagementhasbeenconcerned.Ifthegovernmentwantstoimprovetreasurycashmanagementlevel,theyneedtodoabasicjobwhichistopredictthefuturetreasurycashasaccuratelyaspossible.Bythisway,thegovernmentcanachievethebalancebetweentreasurycashminimizerisksandmaximizebenefits.Currently,boththetheoryan

5、dthepracticeofthetreasurycashflowforecastingandmanagementarelackofsystematicresearch.Especiallythelocalgovernment,theyarenotonlylackingappropriatenormativeguidance,butalsolackingrelevantfacilities.Basedonthissituation,thestartingpointofthispaperispredictingthetreasurycashflowmoreacc

6、uratelybythetheoryanddomesticandforeignpractice.TheempiricalanalysisoftheproblemsofLocalGovernmenttreasurycashflowforecastingandmanagementiscombinedwithXProvincialtreasurycashdata.Attheend,thispaperpropoundsthebetterpolicyadvicetothelocaltreasurycashflowforecastingandmanagement.This

7、hasimportanttheoreticalsignificancetoimproveourtreasurycashmanagementsystem,especiallythelocaltreasurycashmanagementsystem,andimportantpracticalsignificancetoimproveallII摘要levelsofgovernmenttreasurycashmanagement.Thekeypartofthispaperistosolvetheproblemofthemissingtransversemulti-se

8、ctoralnetworkingmec